USD/CHF falls to near 0.8500 due to safe-haven flows, ISM Services PMI awaited
|- USD/CHF extends its winning streak due to the dovish mood surrounding the Fed’s policy outlook.
- CME's FedWatch Tool suggests an increase in odds of a 50-basis point Fed rate cut to 74.5% in September.
- Stable inflation has raised the likelihood of a third consecutive rate cut by the SNB in September.
USD/CHF continues its losing streak that began on July 30, trading around 0.8500 during the European session on Monday. This downside of the USD/CHF pair is attributed to expectations of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) reducing interest rates in September.
Disappointing US jobs market data and a larger-than-expected contraction in the ISM Manufacturing PMI have raised the probability of a 50-basis point rate cut in September, increasing to 74.5% from 11.5% a week earlier, according to the CME's FedWatch Tool.
US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 114K in July from the previous month of 179K (revised down from 206K). This figure came in weaker than the expectation of 175K, data showed on Friday. Additionally, the US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) tumbled to an eight-month low of 46.8 in July. Moreover, traders await ISM Services PMI for July on Monday, which is expected to rise to 51.0 from 48.8 prior.
In Switzerland, inflation increased by 1.3% year-over-year, in line with expectations and consistent with previous rises. This stability strengthens the likelihood of a third consecutive rate cut by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) in September. Additionally, the 10-year yield on Swiss bonds has dropped to a near two-year low of 0.37%. The SNB has been ahead of global peers in its monetary easing, having cut borrowing costs in both of this year’s decisions.
Traders are looking forward to Tuesday's release of the July Unemployment Rate and June Real Retail Sales, which may provide further insight into the Swiss economy and influence the SNB’s policy direction.
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
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