USD/CHF and USD/JPY pops will inevitably be faded – TDS
|US inflation remains stubbornly high. With core prices rising at an accelerated pace of 0.5% in February, terminal pricing has moved higher. The repricing in terminal has hit CHF and JPY right off the bat, but the move is set to be short-lived, economists at TD Securities report.
Market will place more weighting on financial stability over price stability for now
“Consumer price inflation matched expectations in February, with headline CPI advancing at a firm 0.4% MoM pace. However, the real news was in the core segment, with prices there accelerating to 0.5% m/m.”
“Importantly, the firmer core CPI reading reflected another robust m/m increase in the services segment, which saw sticky shelter prices as the main culprit. We also expect goods inflation to turn positive again in the near term, adding to upside risks for core price dynamics.”
“A stronger read on core has helped to reprice terminal higher, weighing mostly on CHF and JPY given they are most sensitive to this market. That said, we think markets may place more weight on financial over price stability, which may help to cap terminal rate pricing and eventually fade the dip.”
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