USD/CAD weakens below 1.3550, eyes on BoC rate decision
|- USD/CAD edges lower to near 1.3545 in Wednesday’s early Asian session.
- US ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 47.2 in August vs. 46.8 prior, missing the estimation.
- The BoC is likely to cut rate at its September meeting on Wednesday.
The USD/CAD pair trades on a weaker note around 1.3545 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The weaker-than-expected US ISM Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) drags the Greenback lower. The Bank of Canada (BoC) interest rate decision will be the highlight later on Wednesday, with a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut expected.
The business activity in the US manufacturing sector continued to contract, albeit at a softer pace in August. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI rose from an eight-month low in July at 46.8 to 47.2 in August. This figure was below the market consensus of 47.5 and register the lowest reading since November.
The cautious mood ahead of the highly-anticipated US August Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday might provide some support to the US Dollar (USD) and cap the pair’s downside. This event will be closely watched as it might offer some hints about how much the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates. Financial markets have priced in around a 62% chance of a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut by the Fed in September, while the odds of a 50 bps reduction stand at 38%, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
On the Loonie front, the BoC is widely expected to deliver a third consecutive interest rate cut on Wednesday amid easing inflationary pressure in the Canadian economy. Investors see the Canadian central bank to lower its benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point to 4.25% followed by several more reductions over this year and 2025. “The Bank of Canada is likely to interpret (last week’s GDP) data as supportive of maintaining its easing bias, with three more quarter-point cuts expected by year-end.” noted Maria Solovieva, TD.
Meanwhile, the further decline in crude oil prices continues to undermine the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD). It's worth noting that Canada is the largest oil exporter to the United States (US), and lower crude oil prices tend to have a negative impact on the CAD value.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
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