USD/CAD holds steady near 1.3850, all eyes on Fed rate decision
|- USD/CAD trades on a flat note near 1.3850 in Tuesday’s early Asian session.
- The Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged at its July meeting on Wednesday.
- Lower crude oil prices and the expectation of more rate cuts by the BoC continue to weigh on the Loonie.
The USD/CAD pair trades flat around 1.3850 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The Greenback is likely to be supported by the risk-off sentiment. Traders await on the sidelines ahead of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) Interest Rate Decision on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, the USD Index (DXY), which measures the value of the USD versus a basket of global currencies, climbs to the highest level in nearly three weeks above the 104.50 barrier. The Fed monetary policy on Wednesday will be a closely watched event, which is anticipated to keep rates unchanged. Investors are now seeing that the first rate cut will come by mid-September, pricing in 100% of the Fed rate cut by least a quarter-percentage-point by then, according to data from the CME FedWatch Tool.
Fed officials said that they are getting closer to having confidence that inflation is sustainably moving towards its 2% target. However, the central bank will take more cues from the rising unemployment, another sign that cuts may be nearing.
On the Loonie front, the fall in crude oil prices exerts some selling pressure on the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD). Lower oil prices generally drag the CAD lower as Canada is the leading exporter of Oil to the United States (US). Additionally, the expectation that the Bank of Canada (BoC) will continue to ease policy after its latest interest rate cut last week might further undermine the Loonie. Investors have priced in one more 25 basis points (bps) rate cut this year, with nearly 60% probability that the BoC will cut rates again in its September meeting.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
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