USD/CAD climbs as speculations for Fed tightening increase after jobs data
|- USD/CAD rises 0.35% to 1.3675 after US jobless claims fall below estimates, pressuring the Fed to focus on its 2% inflation target.
- Market anticipates a 43.5% chance of a 25 bps Fed rate hike in November, as per CME FedWatch Tool, bolstering the US Dollar.
- Loonie stumbles as crude oil prices dip and Canadian GDP contracts, diminishing prospects of a Bank of Canada rate hike.
The US Dollar (USD) extends its advance against the Loonie (CAD) as data from both countries, although it remains positive, favors the Greenback. Powell’s saying “higher for longer” in his speeches continues to impact the markets, which remain wary of further tightening, boosting the USD. The USD/CAD is trading at 1.3675 and gains 0.35% after hitting a daily low of 1.3631.
USD/CAD gains momentum amid favorable jobless claims and Fed rate hike speculation despite stable Canadian business activity.
The US Department of Labor showed that Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending September 2 rose by 216K, below estimates of 229K, indicating the jobs market is yet to loosen. This puts pressure on the US Federal Reserve (Fed), which focuses on bringing inflation towards its 2% goal.
Although Fed policymakers have begun to adopt a more cautious stance, the market’s reaction suggests the Fed could increase rates in the future. The CME FedWatch Tool depicts money markets have fully priced in the US central bank would keep rates unchanged in September. But for November, chances of a 25 bps increase lie at 43.5%.
The USD/CAD pair reacted to the upside on the data, even though US Treasury bond yields are unchanged. In the meantime, the US Dollar Index (DXY), a gauge of the buck’s value against a basket of peers, prints modest gains of 0.18
Another reason behind Loonie’s fall is crude oil prices are under pressure, down 0.31%, at $87.27, as the market awaits EIA inventories.
Recently, data from Canada showed that business activity expanded in August following a contraction of 48.6 in July. The Ivey PMI came at 53.5, indicating expansion, as shown by data on Thursday. Some subcomponents of the PMI showed an improvement, like employment and supplier deliveries. Although it paints an improved scenario, the latest Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report for the second quarter contracted -0.2%, denting the Bank of Canada (BoC) of a possible rate hike yesterday as the economy cools down.
What to watch?
The Canadian economic docket would feature employment data, while the US will release Wholesale Inventories and Fed speakers.
USD/CAD Price Analysis: Technical outlook
The pair resumed its uptrend, challenging a major resistance area at 1.3667, April’s 28 daily high. A daily close above the latter would expose the 1.3700 figure and then the March 24 high at 1.3804. Conversely, sellers could remain hopeful of lower prices if USD/CAD ends Thursday’s session below 1.3667. A breach of the latter would expose September’s 6 low of 1.3622 before diving towards September 4 low of 1.3586.
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