Breaking: US S&P Manufacturing PMI declines to 49.9, Composite PMI falls to 50.9

04/23/2024 14:24:47 GMT|ByFXStreet Team

US S&P Global Composite PMI declined to 50.9 in April's flash estimate from 52.1, showing that the business activity in the US' private sector continued to expand, albeit at a softer pace than in March.

S&P Global Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.9 from 51.9 in the same period, highlighting a contraction in the manufacturing sector's business activity. Finally, S&P Global Services PMI edged lower to 50.9 from 51.7.

Assessing the survey's findings, "the US economic upturn lost momentum at the start of the second quarter, with the flash PMI survey respondents reporting below-trend business activity growth in April," said Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

"Further pace may be lost in the coming months, as April saw inflows of new business fall for the first time in six months and firms’ future output expectations slipped to a five-month low amid heightened concern about the outlook," Williamson added.

Market reaction

The US Dollar came under selling pressure with the immediate reaction. At the time of press, the US Dollar Index was down 0.33% on the day at 105.80.

US Dollar price today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the Pound Sterling.

	USD	EUR	GBP	CAD	AUD	JPY	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.31%	-0.51%	-0.15%	-0.32%	-0.05%	-0.17%	-0.23%
EUR	0.31%		-0.21%	0.16%	0.00%	0.26%	0.15%	0.07%
GBP	0.51%	0.20%		0.36%	0.19%	0.47%	0.33%	0.29%
CAD	0.15%	-0.16%	-0.36%		-0.15%	0.10%	-0.02%	-0.08%
AUD	0.32%	0.00%	-0.21%	0.15%		0.26%	0.14%	0.07%
JPY	0.06%	-0.28%	-0.46%	-0.11%	-0.25%		-0.10%	-0.13%
NZD	0.17%	-0.14%	-0.34%	0.02%	-0.14%	0.11%		-0.08%
CHF	0.25%	-0.12%	-0.34%	0.03%	-0.11%	0.13%	0.03%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote).

This section below was published at 08:00 GMT as a preview of the US S&P Global PMI data.

S&P Global PMIs are expected to indicate business activity in the US continued to expand in April.
Manufacturing and Services output are seen advancing at a moderate pace.
EUR/USD holds above 1.0600, near-term bearish bias remains intact.

S&P Global will release the flash estimates of the United States (US) Purchasing Managers Indexes (PMIs) for April on Tuesday, a survey that measures business activity throughout the month. The report is divided into services and manufacturing output and compiled in a final figure, the Composite PMI.

The economic activity in the US private sector expanded at a moderating pace in March, with the S&P Global Composite PMI edging lower to 52.1 from 52.5 in February. The Services PMI declined to 51.7 from 52.3 in this period, while the Manufacturing PMI fell to 51.9 from 52.2.
Commenting on the survey's findings, “further expansions of both manufacturing and service sector output in March helped close off the US economy’s strongest quarter since the second quarter of last year," said Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

"The survey data point to another quarter of robust GDP growth accompanied by sustained hiring as companies continue to report new order growth," Williamson added. “A steepening rise in costs, combined with strengthened pricing power amid the recent upturn in demand, meant inflationary pressures gathered pace again in March."

What to expect from the next S&P Global PMI report?

S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI are both expected to come in at 52 in April’s flash estimate, highlighting an ongoing expansion in the private sector’s economic activity. Any reading above 50 signals economic activity is growing, while an indicator below this threshold suggests contraction.

Since the beginning of the year, the two main highlights of the US economy have been robust activity and stubborn inflation. Hence, market participants have shifted their expectations toward an extended delay in the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy pivot towards rate cuts. Earlier in the year, investors were forecasting the Fed to lower the policy rate as early as March. Employment, activity and inflation data in the first quarter of 2024 largely surprised to the upside and caused investors to reassess the US central bank’s policy outlook. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets currently price in a 65% probability that the Fed will lower the policy rate in September.

Flash PMI data for April are expected to confirm that the US economy preserved its strength to start the second quarter. Comments regarding the input costs could also point to ongoing inflationary pressures.

When will April flash US S&P Global PMIs be released and how could they affect EUR/USD?

The S&P Global PMI report will be released on Tuesday at 13:45 GMT. Ahead of the event, the US Dollar (USD) stays resilient against its rivals. The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the USD’s performance against a basket of six major currencies, seems to have entered into a consolidation phase after setting a five-month high above 106.00 in the previous week, boosted by hawkish Fed commentary and risk aversion.

Unless either the Manufacturing or the Services PMI unexpectedly drops below 50 and shows a contraction in the sector’s activity, the USD could hold its ground. If the publication highlights a downturn in private sector’s employment, or a softening in input costs, the USD could come under selling pressure even if headline PMIs hold above 50.

Eren Sengezer, European Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, shares a brief outlook for EUR/USD:

“The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart stays below 40, suggesting that EUR/USD has more room on the downside before it turns technically oversold.”

“On the upside, 1.0700 (static level) aligns as interim resistance before 1.0750, where the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is located. A daily close above this level could attract technical buyers and open the door for an extended recovery toward the 200-day SMA at 1.0820. On the other hand, supports are located at 1.0600 (static level), 1.0500 (psychological level, static level) and 1.0450 (October 3 low).”

Economic Indicator

S&P Global Composite PMI

The S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis, is a leading indicator gauging US private-business activity in the manufacturing and services sector. The data is derived from surveys to senior executives. Each response is weighted according to the size of the company and its contribution to total manufacturing or services output accounted for by the sub-sector to which that company belongs. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the private economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the US Dollar (USD). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for USD.

GDP FAQs

What is GDP and how is it recorded?

A country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the rate of growth of its economy over a given period of time, usually a quarter. The most reliable figures are those that compare GDP to the previous quarter e.g Q2 of 2023 vs Q1 of 2023, or to the same period in the previous year, e.g Q2 of 2023 vs Q2 of 2022. Annualized quarterly GDP figures extrapolate the growth rate of the quarter as if it were constant for the rest of the year. These can be misleading, however, if temporary shocks impact growth in one quarter but are unlikely to last all year – such as happened in the first quarter of 2020 at the outbreak of the covid pandemic, when growth plummeted.

How does GDP influence currencies?

A higher GDP result is generally positive for a nation’s currency as it reflects a growing economy, which is more likely to produce goods and services that can be exported, as well as attracting higher foreign investment. By the same token, when GDP falls it is usually negative for the currency. When an economy grows people tend to spend more, which leads to inflation. The country’s central bank then has to put up interest rates to combat the inflation with the side effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors, thus helping the local currency appreciate.

How does higher GDP impact the price of Gold?

When an economy grows and GDP is rising, people tend to spend more which leads to inflation. The country’s central bank then has to put up interest rates to combat the inflation. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold versus placing the money in a cash deposit account. Therefore, a higher GDP growth rate is usually a bearish factor for Gold price.

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