Breaking: US JOLTS Job Openings fall to 8.059 million in April vs. 8.34 million expected
|The number of job openings on the last business day of April stood at 8.059 million, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported in the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) on Tuesday. This reading followed the 8.35 million (revised from 8.48 million) openings reported in March and came in below the market expectation of 8.34 million.
"Over the month, both the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.6 million and 5.4 million, respectively," the BLS noted in its press release. "Within separations, quits (3.5 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.5 million) changed little."
Market reaction to JOLTS Job Openings data
The US Dollar Index, which tracks the US Dollar's performance against a basket of six major currencies, declined from daily highs toward 104.00 with the immediate reaction. The USD Index, however, recovered following the initial decline and was last seen trading modestly higher on the day at around 104.20.
US Dollar PRICE Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.29% | 0.25% | -0.68% | 0.45% | 0.78% | 0.35% | -0.49% | |
| EUR | -0.29% | -0.03% | -0.96% | 0.18% | 0.48% | 0.09% | -0.77% | |
| GBP | -0.25% | 0.03% | -0.93% | 0.21% | 0.53% | 0.13% | -0.70% | |
| JPY | 0.68% | 0.96% | 0.93% | 1.16% | 1.47% | 1.04% | 0.23% | |
| CAD | -0.45% | -0.18% | -0.21% | -1.16% | 0.32% | -0.10% | -0.91% | |
| AUD | -0.78% | -0.48% | -0.53% | -1.47% | -0.32% | -0.41% | -1.22% | |
| NZD | -0.35% | -0.09% | -0.13% | -1.04% | 0.10% | 0.41% | -0.82% | |
| CHF | 0.49% | 0.77% | 0.70% | -0.23% | 0.91% | 1.22% | 0.82% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
This section below was published as a preview of the US JOLTS Job Openings data at 08:00 GMT.
- The US JOLTS data will be watched closely by investors ahead of the May jobs report.
- Job openings are forecast to edge lower to 8.34 million on the last business day of April.
- Markets don’t expect the Fed to lower the policy rate at least until September.
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) will be released on Tuesday by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The publication will provide data about the change in the number of job openings in April, alongside the number of layoffs and quits.
JOLTS data is scrutinized by market participants and Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers because it can provide valuable insights regarding the supply-demand dynamics in the labor market, a key factor impacting salaries and inflation. Job openings have been trending down over the last year and a half, pointing to cooling conditions in the labor market. In March, the number of job openings stood at 8.48 million, marking the lowest reading since February 2021.
What to expect in the next JOLTS report?
"Over the month, the number of hires changed little at 5.5 million while the number of total separations decreased to 5.2 million," the BLS noted in its March JOLTS report and added: "Within separations, quits (3.3 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.5 million) changed little."
Following the 9.3 million openings announced in September, job openings remained below 9 million for six consecutive months. Investors expect job openings to edge lower to 8.34 million in April from 8.48 million in March. Meanwhile, Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 175,000 in April following the impressive 315,0000 increase recorded in March.
After closing the first four months of the year in positive territory, the US Dollar (USD) Index, which measures the USD’s valuation against a basket of six major currencies, lost more than 1.5% in May. Investors remain hopeful that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could opt for a 25 basis points reduction in the policy rate in September. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a policy pivot stands at nearly 55%.
FXStreet Analyst Eren Sengezer shares his view on the JOLTS Job Openings data and the potential market reaction:
“In case the JOLTS Job Openings data for April comes in at or below 8 million, it could reaffirm loosening conditions in labor market and weigh on the USD with the immediate reaction. On the other hand, a reading above 9 million could cause investors to refrain from pricing in a rate cut in September, at least until May jobs report, and allow the USD to outperform its peers.”
When will the JOLTS report be released and how could it affect EUR/USD?
Job openings numbers will be published on Tuesday, June 4, at 14:00 GMT. Eren points out key technical levels to watch for EUR/USD ahead of JOLTS data:
“The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart holds comfortably above 50, highlighting a lack of bearish pressure. Following the uptrend that ended on May 16, the pair stabilized above the 1.0780-1.0800 region, where the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA) are located. If EUR/USD drops below that area and starts using it as resistance, technical sellers could take action. In this scenario, further losses toward 1.0700 (psychological level, static level) and 1.0600 (2024-low set on April 16) could be seen.”
“In case EUR/USD continues to use 1.0780-1.0800 area as support, buyers could remain interested and open the door for a leg higher toward 1.0900 (static level, psychological level), 1.0950 (static level) and 1.1000 (psychological level, static level).”
Employment FAQs
Labor market conditions are a key element in assessing the health of an economy and thus a key driver for currency valuation. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and economic growth, boosting the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can also have implications on inflation levels because low labor supply and high demand leads to higher wages.
The pace at which salaries are growing in an economy is key for policymakers. High wage growth means that households have more money to spend, usually leading to price increases in consumer goods. In contrast to more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of underlying and persisting inflation as salary increases are unlikely to be undone. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when deciding on monetary policy.
The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks explicitly have mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation under control. Still, and despite whatever mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for policymakers given their significance as a gauge of the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation.
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