US Initial Jobless Claims Preview: USD appeal to disappear in absence of new lockdowns
|Initial Claims are forecast to slip to 1.375 million from 1.427 million whereas Continuing Claims are expected to be at 18.95 million, down 24% from peak. Joseph Trevisani, an analyst at FXStreet, notes that USD is modestly lower on good US economic data as ebbs virus fears despite the rise in cases.
Key quotes
“Initial Claims are predicted to fall to 1.375 million in the week of July 3 from 1.427 million prior while Continuing Claims are projected to drop to 18.95 million from 19.29 million. The four-week moving average for Initial Claims was 1.503 million in the June 26 week.”
“Millions of workers are being rehired at a much faster pace than anticipated as most of the economy liberalizes pandemic restrictions. At the same time businesses continue to fail from the prolonged closures. In many urban areas, especially on the coasts, the commercial traffic needed to sustain restaurants, bars and small shops, remains far below normal levels. This development indicates that the recovery, however fast, will not easily provide jobs for the unknown number of workers whose employers are permanently closed.”
“The dollar is being pulled in two directions. On one side the improving economic data in the US has greatly subdued the pandemic risk-premium. At the same time, the rising tide of coronavirus cases, even if not accompanied by increasing fatalities, has stoked fears of the long-bruited second wave of the pandemic. Unless most of the US resumes lockdowns of the scale and duration of March and April the current flirtation with the risk dollar will eventually disappear.”
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.