US Dollar clings on to gains with Europe hangover after EU elections
|- The US Dollar rallies on all fronts, with antipodes as outliers.
- Markets are trembling with fear after the EU election result forced Macron to call for snap elections.
- The US Dollar Index pops above 105.00 and hits a fresh four-week high.
The US Dollar (USD) is locking in gains against most of its major peers, with antipodes Aussie Dollar (USD/AUD) and New Zealand Dollar (USD/NZD) as outliers, after Nonfarm Payrolls data on Friday. The main driver for the second leg higher comes from European elections over the weekend, where the Far Right parties gain ground in the European Union (EU). The results in France were even so devastating for French President Emmanuel Macron and his ruling coalition that he called snap elections for June 30 and the run-off on July 7.
On the economic front, it is a very calm start to the week. On Wednesday, the focus will be on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release for May and on the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which will decide on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy interest rate and will release a fresh dot plot and economic projections.
Daily digest market movers: EU politics pave way for gridlock
- On Sunday, the European election results were released with some key takeaways:
- French President Emmanuel Macron saw his party coming in third, way behind the two parties that won the most votes. This forced President Macron to call for snap elections.
- In Italy, the Far Right’s current leading Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s party won another substantial amount of votes and further cemented the Far Right gains for her government in Italy.
- The US Treasury will have its work on Monday with three bond allocations:
- At 15:30 GMT, a 3-month and a 6-month bill will be released.
- At 17:00 GMT, a 3-year bond will be auctioned.
- Equities are in the red across the board, especially in Europe. The Euro Stoxx 50, the European equity benchmark, is falling over 1%. US equity futures are just slightly in the red.
- There has been a sharp shift in the Fed rate cut expectations for September. The CME FedWatch tool shows that 30-Day Fed Funds futures pricing data suggest a 49% chance that interest rate will be lower than the current level in September, significantly down from the 59.6% recorded a week ago.
- The benchmark 10-year US Treasury Note prints a fresh seven-day high at 4.46%.
US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: CPI and Fed guiding summer
The US Dollar Index (DXY) has snapped some crucial technical levels in its run higher over the past two days. Trading even above the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 105.04 on Monday, it will be key to see if this level can hold as support by Wednesday when a rather hawkish Fed might lay out the plan for the DXY to jump back to 106.00. That would mean even a possibility for a fresh 2024 high, depending on the message US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell delivers to markets.
On the upside, there are some technical or pivotal levels to watch out for. The first is 105.52, a pivotal level that held support during most of April. Next comes at 105.88, which triggered a rejection at the start of May and will likely play its role as resistance again. The biggest challenge remains at 105.51, the year-to-date high marked on April 16.
On the downside, a trifecta of SMA’s is now playing as support. First, and very close, is the 55-day SMA at 105.04. A touch lower, near 104.45, both the 100-day and the 200-day SMA are forming a double layer of protection to support any declines in the US Dollar Index. Should this area be broken down, look for 104.00 to salvage the situation.
Central banks FAQs
Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%.
A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing.
A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%.
Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.
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