US Dollar gains ground, markets await further directions on the next Fed decisions
|- After a shaky Monday, the USD recovered, and Tuesday is unlikely to see much movement.
- Amid renewed market sentiment, US Dollar (DXY) gains and remains near the 103.00 mark.
- The market is pricing in a 100 bps rate cut by year-end.
On Tuesday, the US Dollar (USD), measured by the DXY Index, is capitalizing on recent recovery gains near the 103.00 mark subsequent to an improvement in market sentiment. In addition, caution due to absent news about the Middle Eastern conflict between Iran and Israel is also backing the Dollar's current position. However, the Greenback's trajectory throughout the day could potentially be limited by the high dovish bets on the Federal Reserve (Fed).
Markets are seeing that the US economic outlook is weak due to July’s soft data and seem to be fearing a recession, while officials are asking the public not to overreact to one data point.
Daily digest market movers: USD upside limited as markets price in 100 bps Fed easing by year-end
- Despite the USD gains, its potential is limited by the steady dovish bets on the Fed.
- Market anticipates a rate cut in September, leading to subsequent USD weakening.
- In addition, market is pricing in a 100 bps rate cut by year-end, with some odds of an additional 25 bps.
- Over 200 bps of total easing is priced in for the coming year, barring a deep US recession.
- Market anxiously awaiting incoming data to assess Fed easing narrative.
DXY technical outlook: Bulls step in, but bears still command
On the technical side, the DXY outlook turned bearish after a sharp decline in the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which fell into oversold territory in the last few trading sessions but seemed to recover on Tuesday. However, the outlook remains bearish, with the index still trading below the 20, 100 and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs).
Supports: 102.50, 102.20, 102.00
Resistances: 103.00, 103.50, 104.00
Central banks FAQs
Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%.
A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing.
A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%.
Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.
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