US Dollar Price Forecast: The bearish vibe prevails below 101.50
|- US Dollar Index gains traction to around 101.25 in Wednesday’s early European session.
- The DXY keeps the bearish outlook below the key 100-day EMA, but the RSI shows neutral momentum.
- The initial support level is seen at 100.68; the first upside barrier is located at 101.77.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) extends the rally to near 101.25 during the early European session on Wednesday. The cautious mood in the market amid the escalating tension in the Middle East and reduced bets for 50 basis points (bps) by the Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in November might underpin the DXY in the near term.
According to the daily chart, the negative outlook of the DXY remains intact as the index remains below the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). However, further consolidation looks favorable as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around the midline, indicating the neutral momentum for the DXY.
The first downside target for the US Dollar emerges at 100.68, the low of October 1. Further south, the next contention level is located at 100.23, the lower limit of the Bollinger Band. The crucial support level to watch is the 100.00 psychological level.
On the upside, the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band at 101.77 acts as an immediate resistance level for DXY. A decisive break above this level will expose 101.84, the high of September 12. Extended gains will see a rally to 102.78, the 100-day EMA.
(This story was corrected on October 2 at 08:59 GMT to say that the first upside barrier, the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band, is at 101.77, not 101.30.)
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
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