US Dollar sideways with no big changes in Fedspeak
|- The US Dollar eases back at the start of a fresh week.
- The Greenback pulls back with risk on sentiment taking over.
- The US Dollar Index hovers around 104.50 and retreats a touch.
The US Dollar (USD) is starting the week as it closed off the previous week: with some easing. Equities are on the front foot this Monday while commodities are trading higher, pushing the Greenback into some easing. Market volumes though might be a bit lighter than normal in the European trading hours with European markets closed for a bank holiday.
On the economic data front, traders are bracing for the Fed Minutes from the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy rate decision. Markets will be looking for clues or further confirmation on ‘how long’ steady for longer actually means. Ahead of the Minutes later this week, traders can brace for no less than five Fed speakers lined up for this Monday.
Daily digest market movers: Nothing new
- Market volume in European hours can be a big lighter with European markets closed for a bank holiday. Canada and India are closed for business as well.
- Markets are facing a slew of Fed officials for this Monday:
- At 12:15 GMT, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic delivers welcome remarks at the Atlanta Fed's Financial Market Conference.
- Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Bar delivers a keynote speech at the Atlanta Fed's Financial Market Conference at 13:00 GMT.
- Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller delivers welcoming remarks at the Third Conference on the International Roles of the US Dollar in Washington, DC, as well near 13:00 GMT.
- Near 14:30 Federal Reserve Vice Chair Phillip Jefferson delivers a speech about the US economic outlook and housing price dynamics at the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Secondary and Capital Markets Conference in New York.
- To close off this Monday near 23:00 GMT, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic (2024 voting member) delivers a keynote speech at the Atlanta Fed's Financial Market Conference dinner.
- US equity indices are giving back earlier gains, though look to go for a positive performance.
- The CME Fedwatch Tool suggests a 91.1% probability that June will still see no change to the Federal Reserve's fed fund rate. Odds have changed for September, with the tool showing a 49.0% chance that rates will be 25 basis points lower than current levels.
- The benchmark 10-year US Treasury Note trades around 4.41%.
US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Focus on Fed Minutes
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is easing at the start of this week, with markets picking up where they left off last week. Some more Dollar selling is taking place with traders heading out of safe havens and into risk assets, with equities and commodities sprinting higher. With a rather light economic data calendar ahead for this week, room for more risk on is present and could mean that the DXY slides below the 104.00 marker.
On the upside, several levels need to be regained again after Wednesday’s firm correction. The first is the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 104.68, together with a pivotal level at 104.60. The next step up will be 105.12 and 105.52.
On the downside, the 100-day SMA around 104.11 is the last man standing to support the decline. Once that snaps, an air pocket is placed between 104.11 and 103.00. Should US Dollar outflows persist, the low of March at 102.35 and the low from January at 100.61 are levels to keep into consideration.
Central banks FAQs
Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%.
A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing.
A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%.
Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.
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