US Dollar up as recession fears ease after strong Retail Sales figures
|- USD steadies amidst mixed market reactions and fresh data releases.
- Retail Sales from July came in strong as well as weekly Jobless Claims.
- Markets continue confident outlook about a September cut by the Fed.
The US Dollar (USD), measured by the US Dollar Index (DXY), consolidated and rose toward the 102.90 level during Thursday's trading session. This was influenced by strong data reported by the US, but steady dovish bets continue to limit the USD upside.
The US economy is persisting above the trend, suggesting that the market may once again be leaning too heavily into firm easing.
Daily digest market movers: USD steadies as Retail Sales and Jobless Claims beat expectations
- Retail Sales rose 1% MoM to $709.7 billion in July, according to the US Census Bureau. This figure surpassed the expected 0.3% increase and compensated for the 0.2% dip in June.
- Retail Sales ex Autos also rose noticeably by 0.4%, beating the expected 0.1%.
- In addition, Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending August 10 came in at 227K, better than the expected 235K and down from the previous week's revised figure of 234K.
- According to the CME FedWatch Tool, odds now point to an 80% chance of a rate cut in September, and markets remain overconfident of 200 bps of easing in the next 12 months though that will depend on incoming data.
DXY technical outlook: Bias remains bearish but showing signs of stabilization
DXY's technical outlook remains bearish, despite some indications of stabilization. The index is positioned below the 20, 100 and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), confirming the established bearish bias. Momentum-based indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is now hovering around 40, showing signs of stability despite persisting selling pressure.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) also demonstrates red bars that have stabilized deep in the negative region. Though there is a notable shift in momentum, the overall technical narrative does not project a significant bullish rebound just yet.
Support Levels: 102.40, 102.20, 102.00 Resistance Levels: 103.00, 103.50, 104.00
Interest rates FAQs
Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%. If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation.
Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank. If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold.
The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure. Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.
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