US: A firm payroll print should seal tapering for November – TD Securities
|On Friday, the US official employment report is due. After positive numbers from the ADP report and jobless claims, market participants are set for the Non-farm payrolls reports. According to analysts from TD Securities, a firm payroll print should seal the tapering announcement for November.
Key Quotes:
"The signals for payrolls in September have been mixed, and large swings in seasonal factors make forecasting the data especially challenging, but we expect a pickup relative to the 235k rise in August (which will probably be revised up a bit). We forecast +525k, which should be more than strong enough for the Fed to start QE tapering in November."
"We expect the USD to retain its firm tone against the funding currencies on a slight data beat, but dips in the USD to be shallow should payrolls underwhelm."
"A firm payroll print should seal the tapering announcement for November, allowing markets to begin pricing in the flow effect of tapering. This should continue to pressure real rates higher and is a reason we remain short real 10y rates."
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.