Singapore: GDP could contract 4%-7% this year – UOB
|Singapore’s economic activity carries the potential to contract between 4% and 7% this year as a consequence of the impact of the coronavirus crisis on the economy, noted Barnabas Gan, Economist at UOB Group.
Key Quotes
“Singapore’s GDP contracted 0.7% y/y (-4.7% q/q saar) in 1Q20, better than the advanced estimates of -2.2% (-10.6% q/q saar) previously released by the Ministry of Trade and Industry on 26 March 2020. This is the first year-on-year contraction since the Global Financial Crisis (2Q09: -1.2% y/y).”
“Other economic indicators also hint at Singapore’s relatively subdued economic performance for the year ahead. Total merchandise exports fell 1.3% in 1Q20, led by domestic exports (-6.2%). More starkly perhaps, is the plunge in services exports (-2.9%), suggesting that the tourism industry has been lacklustre. The labour market has also softened considerably, with unemployment rising to 2.4% in 1Q20.”
“MTI downgraded Singapore’s full-year growth to a range of -4.0% to -7.0% in 2020, down from a previous forecast range of -1.0% and -4.0%. We keep our Singapore’s full-year growth GDP in 2020 to contract 4.0% with downside risks. The economic environment remains extremely uncertain at this juncture, especially given the phased easing of Singapore’s circuit breaker measures. Little clarity has been given on border re-opening, suggesting that tourist activities may remain subdued for a considerable period.”
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.