Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD tumbles below $31.00 as US Dollar rebounds
|- Silver price trades in negative territory around $30.95 in Monday’s early European session, down 0.95% on the day.
- The US economy added fewer jobs in June, and Unemployment Rate rose to its highest level since late 2021.
- Fed’s hawkish stance or hotter-than-expected CPI inflation data might weigh on the white metal.
Silver price (XAG/USD) edges lower to $30.95 during the early European session on Monday. The white metal declines on the back of renewed US Dollar (USD) demand and higher US bond yields. However, the precious metal’s losses might be limited by the rising bets on the US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts this year.
The US employment report on Friday showed that employers added fewer jobs in June and that the Unemployment Rate rose to its highest level since late 2021, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the United States saw 206K job additions in June. The previous month saw a sharp downside revision to 218K from the initial reading of 272K. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate ticked higher to 4.1% in June from 4% in May.
The downwardly revised NFP and a further rise in the jobless rate suggested that strength in labour market conditions has eased further, prompting the expectation of Fed rate cuts in the third quarter. This, in turn, weighs on the US Dollar (USD) and creates a tailwind for the precious metal. A lower interest rate generally lifts the Silver price as it reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. Investors are now pricing in nearly 77% odds of a Fed rate cut in September, up from 70% before the US employment report, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Investors will keep an eye on the Fed's Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony to the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data for June, which is due on Thursday. The hawkish stance from the Fed and hotter-than-expected CPI inflation data could dampen the rate cut speculation, which boosts the Greenback and exerts some selling pressure on the silver price.
(This story was corrected on July 8 at 08:06 GMT to say that the precious metal’s losses might be limited, not gains).
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
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