Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD rises above $29.00 due to dovish mood surrounding the Fed
|- Silver price gains ground as market participants expect Fed’s Powell to deliver a statement about the possible rate cuts.
- Boston Fed President Susan Collins expressed her support for beginning interest rate cuts next month.
- The safe-haven Silver may advance further due to the ongoing deadlock in securing a truce between Israel and Hamas.
Silver price (XAG/USD) moves above $29.00 per troy ounce during Friday’s Asian hours. Non-yielding Silver prices gain ground ahead of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium later in the North American session. Powell may deliver a statement about the possibility of interest rate cuts in the United States (US), which is highly anticipated by market participants.
Several Federal Reserve officials have recently shown optimism about a potential rate cut next month, a perspective also reflected in the latest FOMC minutes. On Thursday, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins expressed confidence that the US central bank can reduce inflation without causing a recession and indicated her support for beginning interest rate cuts next month, per Reuters.
Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid mentioned in an interview with broadcaster CNBC at Jackson Hole, that he is closely examining the factors behind the rise in the unemployment rate and will rely on data to determine whether to support a rate reduction next month.
CME FedWatch Tool suggests that the markets are now pricing in 73.5% odds of a 25 basis point (bps) Fed rate cut in its September meeting, up from 62.0% a day ago. The probability of a 50 basis point rate cut decreased to 26.5% from 38.0% a day earlier.
Silver, a traditional safe-haven asset, may gain support due to the ongoing deadlock in securing a truce between Israel and Hamas. The stalemate increases the risk of a broader conflict in the Middle East. Disagreements over Israel's military presence in Gaza and Palestinian prisoner releases are hindering progress on a ceasefire and hostage deal. Sources, including two Hamas officials and three Western diplomats, indicate that these disputes have arisen from additional demands introduced by Israel after Hamas initially accepted a ceasefire proposal, according to Reuters.
However, Silver demand faced challenges after recent industrial output data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics showed a struggling economy in the world’s largest manufacturing hub. Given Silver's importance in various industrial applications, this downturn in industrial demand is significant.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
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