Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD nosedives to $27.30 as Middle East tensions ebb
|- Silver price witnesses bloodshed drops vertically to $27.30 as safe-haven demand eases.
- The demand for safe-haven assets weakens as fears of widening Middle East conflict ease.
- The US Dollar and bond yields rise as investors see the Fed keeping interest rates higher for longer.
Silver price (XAG/USD) faces an intense sell-off and drops to $27.30 in Monday’s early American session. The white metal falls on the backfoot as investors expect that conflicts in the Middle East region will not widen further. Fears from Middle East tensions ebb after Iran commented that currently, they are not planning any immediate retaliation to Israel’s limited attack on Isfahan.
Receding risks of further escalation in conflicts between Israel and Iran has weakened demand for safe-haven assets. This has improved investors’ appetite for risky assets. The S&P 500 opens on a bullish note, suggesting a cheerful market mood. 10-year US Treasury yields rise to 4.65% as investors expect that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would be a laggard in unwinding the restrictive policy framework compared with other central banks from developed nations.
The CME FedWatch tool shows traders pricing in the September policy meeting, when the central bank could start reducing interest rates. Expectations for Fed rate cuts have shifted to September from June as policymakers expect that progress in inflation declining to the 2% target has stalled.
On Friday, Chicago Fed Bank President Austan Goolsbee said, “Given the strength of the labor market and progress on easing inflation seen over a longer arc, I believe the Fed's current restrictive monetary policy is appropriate," Reuters reported.
This has also improved the appeal of the US Dollar. The US Dollar Index (DXY) jumps higher to 106.30 as the Fed maintains that interest rates need to remain at their current levels for a longer period.
Silver technical analysis
Silver price falls sharply to near the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around $27.20 after failing extend upside above three-year high of $29.80. The horizontal support plotted from April 14 high at $26.09 will be a major cushion for the Silver price.
The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) slips into the 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting that momentum is not bullish anymore. However, the bullish bias is intact.
Silver daily chart
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