Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD edges lower to near $31.00 due to China’s concerns
|- Silver price depreciates due to a slowing economy in China, the world's largest manufacturing hub.
- The third plenum has indicated no major changes in the economic strategy of top consumer China.
- The non-yielding Silver struggled after Tuesday's hawkish remarks from Fed member Dr. Adriana Kugler.
Silver price (XAG/USD) retraces its recent gains, trading around $30.90 per troy ounce during the European hours on Wednesday. The grey metal faces challenges due to a slowing Chinese economy, the world's largest manufacturing hub. China's industrial demand for Silver is significant, as it is essential in various applications such as electronics, solar panels, and automotive components.
China's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 4.7% year-over-year in the second quarter, compared to a 5.3% expansion in the first quarter and an expected 5.1%. This marks the slowest growth since the first quarter of 2023.
The third plenum of the Chinese Communist Party's 20th National Congress, held from July 15 to 18, has so far indicated no major changes in the economic strategy of top consumer China. President Xi Jinping urged the Communist Party to maintain "unwavering faith and commitment" to its strategic agenda.
Standard Chartered anticipates that the People's Bank of China (PBoC) will implement cuts in both interest rates and the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) as GDP growth decelerates in the second quarter. China's growth drivers remain uneven, and trade tensions are escalating, with the US and EU imposing new tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs).
Additionally, Silver prices struggle due to the emergence of the hawkish sentiment surrounding the Federal Reserve (Fed) policy stance after the speech from Federal Reserve (Fed) Board of Governors member Dr. Adriana Kugler on Tuesday. Dr. Kugler indicated that if upcoming data does not confirm that inflation is moving toward the 2% target, it may be appropriate to maintain current rates for a while longer.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
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