Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD bounces back to near $32.00 following China stimulus plans
|- Silver price retraces its recent losses as China’s fresh stimulus plans offset the fading effects of Tuesday’s measures.
- China plans to inject over CNY 1 trillion in capital into its largest state banks.
- The non-yielding Silver continues to receive support from rising odds of further Fed rate cuts.
Silver price (XAG/USD) edges higher as China, the world’s largest metals market, announces plans for additional stimulus measures to bolster its economy, offsetting the diminishing effects of Tuesday’s earlier actions. Silver price trades around $32.00 per troy ounce during Thursday’s European hours.
China plans to inject over CNY 1 trillion in capital into its largest state banks, which are facing challenges such as shrinking margins, declining profits, and increasing bad loans. This substantial capital infusion would mark the first of its kind since the 2008 global financial crisis.
The safe-haven Silver also receives support from rising tensions in the Middle East. An Israeli airstrike on Beirut killed a senior Hezbollah commander on Tuesday, raising fears of a broader conflict as cross-border rocket attacks intensified.
Meanwhile, the United States, France, and several allies have called for an immediate 21-day ceasefire along the Israel-Lebanon border "Blue Line" and expressed support for a ceasefire in Gaza, following intense discussions at the United Nations on Wednesday.
The non-yielding Silver gained support following last week's substantial 50 basis point rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Moreover, rising expectations of additional Fed rate cuts in 2024 are enhancing the appeal of the commodity for investors amid low opportunity cost.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in a roughly 50% probability that the Fed will implement a total of 75 basis points in rate cuts, bringing rates down to a range of 4.0-4.25% by year’s end. This has weakened the US Dollar (USD), making Silver more affordable for buyers using other currencies and boosting demand for the dollar-denominated commodity.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
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