Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD appreciates toward $31.00 due to rising bets of Fed rate cuts
|- Silver price edges higher due to the dovish sentiment surrounding the Fed regarding its policy stance.
- Fed Chair Jerome Powell mentioned that inflation is on course to meet the Fed’s target in a sustainable manner.
- Silver demand could face challenges as China's economy grew less than expected in Q2.
Silver price (XAG/USD) halts its two-day losing streak, trading around $30.80 per troy ounce during the early European hours on Tuesday. This upward movement is attributed to dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell regarding the monetary policy stance, which has increased the appeal of precious metals. Lower borrowing costs make non-yielding assets like Silver more attractive to investors.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell mentioned on Monday that three US inflation readings of this year "add somewhat to confidence" that inflation is on course to meet the Fed’s target sustainably, suggesting that a shift to interest rate cuts may not be far off.
Additionally, Fed Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly stated that inflation is cooling down in a way that bolsters confidence that it’s on its way to 2%. However, Daly added that more information is needed before making a rate decision.
According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, markets now indicate an 85.7% probability of a 25-basis point rate cut at the September Fed meeting, up from 71.0% a week earlier. Investors will likely observe the US Retail Sales data for June, which are set to be released later in the day, for further insights into the US economic situation.
The price of the grey metal may face challenges as economic data on Monday showed that China’s economy grew less than expected in the second quarter and weak domestic demand. Silver is essential in various industrial applications, such as electronics, solar panels, and automotive components. Given China's status as one of the world's largest manufacturing hubs, the country's industrial demand for Silver is significant.
The third plenum of the Chinese Communist Party's 20th National Congress continues today, being held from July 15 to 18. Standard Chartered expects cuts from the People's Bank of China in rates and the reserve requirement ratio (RRR), as GDP growth decelerated in Q2. China’s growth drivers remain uneven, and trade tensions are rising, with the US and EU imposing new tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs).
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
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