Reuters Poll: Delta darkens US Q3 growth views, Fed taper announcement expected in November
|“The US economic rebound has been dented in Q3, partly on the spread of the Delta coronavirus variant,” per Reuters September 13-16 poll of 51 economists. The economists surveyed also pushed their expectations back to November for when the Federal Reserve announces an impending policy shift.
Key quotes
For now, most economists say the growth slowdown will be temporary, and so far have not made any major changes to a strong outlook for next year.
The median Q3 growth forecast in the Sept. 13-16 Reuters poll was slashed to a 4.4% seasonally adjusted annualized rate from 7.0% just a month ago and well below the second quarter's 6.6% growth, with the range showing lower lows and lower highs.
The Q4 median was chopped to 5.1% from 5.9%.
Nearly 85% of 51 economists who responded to an extra question in the poll said the spread of the Delta variant had a material impact on their quarterly GDP growth forecasts over the last month.
But the growth outlook for next year is a still-robust 4.2%, unchanged from the August poll, and 2.3% in 2023, only a notch lower than the 2.4% predicted last month.
In the meantime, the expected timing of the Fed's taper announcement has shifted decisively over the past month, partly because inflation also remains elevated.
Nearly three-quarters of respondents, 36 of 49, said the taper announcement will come in November and not this month as previously thought.
Read: US Dollar Index looks to 93.00 as Fed taper tantrums back the bulls
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.