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RBA November meeting minutes: No strong case for a near term move

The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) November monetary policy meeting released a few minutes before press time reiterated that while the next move in cash rates is likely to be on the higher side, there is no strong case for a near-term move.

Key points (Source: Reuters)

  • members noted average real earnings had not risen for six years, remained a key uncertainty
  • increase in wages growth necessary for inflation to reach the target range
  • impact of slow incomes growth, high debt "warranted close monitoring"
  • employment stronger than expected, unemployment to fall to 4.75% by mid-2020
  • members noted could be "more pronounced decline" in unemployment in the near term
  • fall in the AUD over 2018 likely to have been helpful for domestic economic growth
  • data pointed to further solid GDP growth in the Sept qtr, to avg 3.5 pct over 2018 and 2019
  • growth to be supported by accommodative monetary policy, stronger terms of trade
  • Sydney and Melbourne housing markets had eased, credit tighter than has been for some time
  • trade protectionism remained a significant risk to the global economy
  • forecasts assumed a small negative impact on trading partner growth from tariffs

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