Pound Sterling surges as stubborn UK inflation diminishes BoE rate-cut bets
|- The Pound Sterling flexes muscles against its major peers as the UK CPI report for June turned out sticky.
- UK service inflation, a key metric for BoE policymakers for decision-making on interest rates, rose steadily to 5.7%.
- Better-than-expected US Retail Sales report for June failed to weaken firm Fed rate-cut expectations.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) exhibits sheer strength in Wednesday’s London session as the United Kingdom (UK) Office for National Statistics (ONS) has reported stubborn Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June.
The CPI report showed that annual headline and core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy items, rose steadily to 2.0% and 3.5%, respectively. Inflation in the service sector, which has remained a key factor in refraining Bank of England (BoE) policymakers from favoring a move to policy normalization, has remained sticky at 5.7%. On month, the headline inflation rose at a slower pace of 0.1%, as expected, from May’s reading of 0.3%.
BoE officials will likely hesitate to support the unwinding of the restrictive monetary policy stance due to sticky price pressures. Policymakers have been showing concerns about stubborn inflationary pressures in the service sector.
A stubborn UK CPI report would also diminish market speculation that the BoE will start reducing interest rates from the August meeting.
The next trigger for the Pound Sterling will be the employment data for the three-months ending in May. Economists expect the ILO Unemployment Rate to remain steady at 4.4%. The Average Earnings data, both Including and Excluding bonuses, a key measure of wage growth, is expected to have decelerated to 5.7%. Signs of easing wage growth momentum would be favorable for market expectations of BoE rate cuts.
Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling strengthens against US Dollar, UK employment in focus
- The Pound Sterling rises to a fresh annual high above the psychological resistance of 1.3000 against the US Dollar (USD). The US Dollar remains on the back foot even though the United States (US) Census Bureau reported better-than-expected Retail Sales data for June on Tuesday.
- Monthly Retail Sales remained unchanged, as expected, as higher receipts for core goods offset weak demand for automobiles. Also, May’s reading was revised higher to 0.3% from 0.1%. The Retail Sales data has slightly improved the economic outlook but cannot weigh on firm market speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will start reducing interest rates from the September meeting.
- According to the CME FedWatch tool, 30-day Federal Funds futures pricing data shows that an interest rate cut in September is a done deal. The tool also shows that traders have priced in two or three rate cuts this year against one forecasted by Fed officials in the latest dot plot.
- Higher expectations for Fed rate cuts in September were boosted by the softer-than-expected CPI report for June, which signaled that the disinflation process resumed in the second quarter after stalling in the first one. Also, easing labor market conditions fuelled rate-cut prospects.
Pound Sterling Price Today:
British Pound PRICE Today
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
| GBP | EUR | USD | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP | 0.21% | 0.31% | -0.73% | 0.32% | 0.24% | -0.16% | -0.11% | |
| EUR | -0.21% | 0.12% | -0.91% | 0.12% | 0.04% | -0.35% | -0.31% | |
| USD | -0.31% | -0.12% | -1.02% | 0.00% | -0.08% | -0.43% | -0.43% | |
| JPY | 0.73% | 0.91% | 1.02% | 1.04% | 0.97% | 0.57% | 0.63% | |
| CAD | -0.32% | -0.12% | -0.00% | -1.04% | -0.09% | -0.46% | -0.43% | |
| AUD | -0.24% | -0.04% | 0.08% | -0.97% | 0.09% | -0.38% | -0.35% | |
| NZD | 0.16% | 0.35% | 0.43% | -0.57% | 0.46% | 0.38% | 0.03% | |
| CHF | 0.11% | 0.31% | 0.43% | -0.63% | 0.43% | 0.35% | -0.03% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling jumps to near 1.3050
The Pound Sterling jumps above 1.3000 against the US Dollar. The near-term outlook of the GBP/USD pair remains firm as it holds the key support of the March 8 high near 1.2900, which used to be a resistance. The major is expected to extend its upside towards a two-year high near 1.3140.
All short-to-long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) are sloping higher, suggesting a strong bullish trend.
The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) jumps to near 70.00 for the first time in more than a year, indicating a strong momentum towards the upside.
BoE FAQs
The Bank of England (BoE) decides monetary policy for the United Kingdom. Its primary goal is to achieve ‘price stability’, or a steady inflation rate of 2%. Its tool for achieving this is via the adjustment of base lending rates. The BoE sets the rate at which it lends to commercial banks and banks lend to each other, determining the level of interest rates in the economy overall. This also impacts the value of the Pound Sterling (GBP).
When inflation is above the Bank of England’s target it responds by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is positive for the Pound Sterling because higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls below target, it is a sign economic growth is slowing, and the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit in the hope businesses will borrow to invest in growth-generating projects – a negative for the Pound Sterling.
In extreme situations, the Bank of England can enact a policy called Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the BoE substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. QE is a last resort policy when lowering interest rates will not achieve the necessary result. The process of QE involves the BoE printing money to buy assets – usually government or AAA-rated corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Pound Sterling.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE, enacted when the economy is strengthening and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Bank of England (BoE) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to encourage them to lend; in QT, the BoE stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive for the Pound Sterling.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.