Pound Sterling jumps as UK inflation ticks up, Fed-BoE policy in focus
|- The Pound Sterling jumps to near 1.3220 against the US Dollar as UK core inflation rose faster than expected in August.
- UK core CPI grew by 3.6%, while the headline inflation was stable at 2.2% as expected.
- The Fed seems prepared to announce its first interest-rate cut in more than four years.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) surges to near 1.3220 against the US Dollar (US) in Wednesday's London session after the release of the hot UK inflation data for August. The GBP/USD pair reclaims the immediate resistance of 1.3200, however, it is expected to face sheer volatility as the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy decision will be announced at 18:00 GMT.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the central bank is certain to start reducing interest rates. This will be the first interest rate cut decision by the Fed in over four years. However, the debate is over the pace by which key borrowing rates will be reduced. 30-day Federal Funds Futures pricing data shows that the probability of the central bank cutting rates by 50 basis points (bps) to 4.75%-5.00% is at 65%, while the rest favors a 25-bps rate cut.
The Fed will pivot to policy normalization as the latest commentaries from officials indicated that the central bank is more concerned about deteriorating labor demand rather than inflation.
Apart from the Fed’s policy decision, investors will also focus on the Fed’s dot plot, economic projections, and the press conference of Fed Chair Jerome Powell after the interest rate decision. The Fed dot plot indicates the collective forecast for the federal fund rate by all policymakers in the medium and long term.
Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling outperforms its major peers as UK core CPI accelerates
- The Pound Sterling gains against its major peers in Wednesday’s London session as the United Kingdom (UK) inflation data for August came in hotter than expected. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) – which excludes volatile items such as food, energy, oil, and tobacco – rose by 3.6%, more than the 3.5% estimated and accelerating from 3.3% in July.
- Services inflation, a closely watched indicator by Bank of England (BoE) officials, rose sharply to 5.6% from 5.2% in July. This acceleration in inflation could force traders to pare back bets supporting one more interest rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE) in the remainder of the year.
- Headline inflation, meanwhile, rose by 0.3% and 2.2% on a monthly and annual basis, respectively, meeting analysts' expectations.
- Going forward, investors will focus on the BoE’s monetary policy announcement on Thursday. Before inflation data came out, markets were already expecting the BoE to leave interest rates unchanged at 5%. With August data signaling that inflation remains stubborn, market expectations for rates remaining at their current levels by the year-end may increase.
British Pound PRICE Today
The table below shows the percentage change of the British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. The British Pound was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| GBP | EUR | USD | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP | 0.28% | 0.52% | -0.04% | 0.41% | 0.07% | -0.18% | -0.00% | |
| EUR | -0.28% | 0.21% | -0.33% | 0.11% | -0.23% | -0.47% | -0.33% | |
| USD | -0.52% | -0.21% | -0.57% | -0.10% | -0.45% | -0.66% | -0.54% | |
| JPY | 0.04% | 0.33% | 0.57% | 0.45% | 0.11% | -0.10% | 0.05% | |
| CAD | -0.41% | -0.11% | 0.10% | -0.45% | -0.35% | -0.58% | -0.41% | |
| AUD | -0.07% | 0.23% | 0.45% | -0.11% | 0.35% | -0.21% | -0.07% | |
| NZD | 0.18% | 0.47% | 0.66% | 0.10% | 0.58% | 0.21% | 0.14% | |
| CHF | 0.00% | 0.33% | 0.54% | -0.05% | 0.41% | 0.07% | -0.14% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling rises above 1.3200
The Pound Sterling approaches 1.3200 against the US Dollar in European trading hours. The near-term outlook of the GBP/USD pair remains firm as it holds above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.3100. Earlier, the Cable strengthened after recovering from a corrective move to near the trendline plotted from the December 28, 2023, high of 1.2828, from where it delivered a sharp increase after a breakout on August 21.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands around 60.00. A fresh round of bullish momentum could occur if the oscillator sustains around this level.
Looking up, the Cable will face resistance near the August 27 high of 1.3266 and the psychological level of 1.3500. On the downside, the psychological level of 1.3000 emerges as crucial support.
Economic Indicator
Core Consumer Price Index (YoY)
The United Kingdom (UK) Core Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly basis, is a measure of consumer price inflation – the rate at which the prices of goods and services bought by households rise or fall – produced to international standards. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to a year earlier. Core CPI excludes the volatile components of food, energy, alcohol and tobacco. The Core CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Last release: Wed Sep 18, 2024 06:00
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 3.6%
Consensus: 3.5%
Previous: 3.3%
Source: Office for National Statistics
The Bank of England is tasked with keeping inflation, as measured by the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) at around 2%, giving the monthly release its importance. An increase in inflation implies a quicker and sooner increase of interest rates or the reduction of bond-buying by the BOE, which means squeezing the supply of pounds. Conversely, a drop in the pace of price rises indicates looser monetary policy. A higher-than-expected result tends to be GBP bullish.
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