Pound Sterling surges ahead of UK budget, US labor and economic data
|- The Pound Sterling rises above 1.3000 against the US Dollar ahead of a string of US economic data.
- Investors will pay close attention to US NFP for October and Q3 GDP.
- The UK budget and market speculation for the BoE interest rate path will influence the Pound Sterling.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) gains to near the psychological resistance of 1.3000 against the US Dollar (USD) in Monday’s North American session. The GBP/USD pair rises sharply as the US Dollar falls back, with investors focusing on a slew of United States (US) economic data this week.
The US Dollar Index (USD), which gauges Greenback’s value against six major currencies, revisits an almost three-month high at around 104.60 on Monday. Investors will pay close attention to the US preliminary Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for October, which will exhibit the current status of economic growth and labor demand, respectively. The economic data will significantly influence market speculation regarding the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate outlook for the remaining year.
The Fed started its policy-easing cycle with a larger-than-usual interest rate cut of 50 basis points (bps) in September as officials were worried about growing economic risks, with confidence over inflationary pressures remaining on track to the bank’s target of 2%.
For the remainder of the year, traders see the central bank reducing interest rates by 25 basis points (bps in November and December, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Meanwhile, the uncertainty over the US presidential election will continue to support the US Dollar. In meetings at the week-long International Monetary Fund (IMF) event last week, financial experts vividly discussed the outcome of the US elections and possible consequences. As former President Donald Trump has vowed to raise tariffs on all nations, central bankers are worried that it could ramp up costs associated with global supply chain mechanism if he wins against current Vice President Kamala Harris.
Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling outperforms while US Dollar falls back
- The Pound Sterling outperforms its major peers, except the Euro, on Monday ahead of the United Kingdom's (UK) Autumn Forecast Statement, which will be announced on Wednesday. Labour's first budget budget is less likely to offer higher spending by the administration as high inflation is still a major issue for the government. The Chancellor of the Exchequer will also respect commitments made in their election manifesto.
- According to Sky News, the government will honor its commitments and will not raise income tax and national insurance but is expected to hike employers’ national insurance by up to 2 percentage points. The Labor Party is expected to offer a large boost to housing affordability.
- Meanwhile, growing speculation for the Bank of England (BoE) to cut interest rates in all two remaining meetings of the year could dampen the Pound Sterling’s appeal. Market expectations for BoE to cut interest rates by 25 bps in November and December have been prompted by BoE Governor Andrew Bailey’s dovish commentary in discussions at the sidelines of the IMF meeting last week.
- “Disinflation is happening, I think, faster than we expected it to, but we have still genuine question marks about whether there have been some structural changes in the economy,” Bailey said, Reuters reported.
British Pound PRICE Today
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.24% | -0.19% | -0.17% | 0.06% | 0.12% | -0.08% | -0.28% | |
| EUR | 0.24% | 0.16% | -0.02% | 0.30% | 0.44% | 0.16% | -0.02% | |
| GBP | 0.19% | -0.16% | 0.66% | 0.25% | 0.33% | 0.07% | 0.07% | |
| JPY | 0.17% | 0.02% | -0.66% | 0.31% | -0.35% | -0.65% | -0.57% | |
| CAD | -0.06% | -0.30% | -0.25% | -0.31% | 0.00% | -0.21% | -0.31% | |
| AUD | -0.12% | -0.44% | -0.33% | 0.35% | -0.01% | -0.31% | -0.44% | |
| NZD | 0.08% | -0.16% | -0.07% | 0.65% | 0.21% | 0.31% | -0.20% | |
| CHF | 0.28% | 0.02% | -0.07% | 0.57% | 0.31% | 0.44% | 0.20% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling aims to climb above 1.3000
The Pound Sterling rises to near the key resistance of 1.3000 against the US Dollar (USD) in North American trading hours on Monday. However, the overall trend remains uncertain as the occurrence of a bear cross, represented by the 20- and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) near 1.3080, suggests more weakness ahead.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) rebounds and attempts to get inside the 40.00-60.00 range, indicating a strong effort by Sterling bulls for a bullish reversal.
Looking down, the 200-day EMA near 1.2845 will be a major support zone for Pound Sterling bulls. On the upside, the Cable will face resistance near the round-level resistance of 1.3100.
Economic Indicator
Gross Domestic Product Annualized
The real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized, released quarterly by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, measures the value of the final goods and services produced in the United States in a given period of time. Changes in GDP are the most popular indicator of the nation’s overall economic health. The data is expressed at an annualized rate, which means that the rate has been adjusted to reflect the amount GDP would have changed over a year’s time, had it continued to grow at that specific rate. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Next release: Wed Oct 30, 2024 12:30 (Prel)
Frequency: Quarterly
Consensus: 3%
Previous: 3%
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis
The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth on an annualized basis for each quarter. After publishing the first estimate, the BEA revises the data two more times, with the third release representing the final reading. Usually, the first estimate is the main market mover and a positive surprise is seen as a USD-positive development while a disappointing print is likely to weigh on the greenback. Market participants usually dismiss the second and third releases as they are generally not significant enough to meaningfully alter the growth picture.
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