Oil trades in thigh range as markets brace for US PMI data
|- WTI Oil is holding steady near $76.
- The US Dollar is range bound as US markets remain muted following Thanksgiving.
- Oil volatility to pick up with several high stakes meetings such as OPEC+, COP28 and LNG Summit on the docket.
Oil prices are easing a touch and trades in a very narrow intraday range this Friday, while this week is due to close off with a small gain. With the ceasefire starting in Gaza and energy transports in the region not risking any supply issues, Oil is discovering fair value near $74. Meanwhile, as crude prices will remain relatively stable this Friday, traders can start to dig their heels in and brace for next week with OPEC+, COP28 and the LNG summit all to take place in the same week.
The US Dollar (USD) is easing a touch after its wild ride ahead of Thanksgiving. On Thursday, as expected, European traders could hear a needle drop in the forex markets as nearly every pair went sideways in a tight range. Volatility is due to pick up a bit this Friday with the US Purchase Managers Index due this afternoon.
Crude Oil (WTI) trades at $76.28 per barrel and Brent Oil trades at $81.15 per barrel at the time of writing.
Oil news and market movers: PMI to move things
- Expect no sharp moves upwards this Friday, unless it is headline driven, as the recent build up US crude stockpile and the Gaza Ceasefire will be two main bearish drivers for Oil prices this Friday,
- OPEC+ ministers will get together on Thursday via an online meeting to discuss production policy for the coming months. The meeting got postponed as severe tensions emerged over the output quotas as Saudi Arabia no longer wants to take the lion’s share.
- The United Nations’ COP28 climate change conference begins in Dubai on Thursday, when OPEC+ will be meeting.
- The recent build in US stockpile of 8.701 million barrels, according to the Energy Information Administration, proves that the US is still pumping up Oil at a ruthless pace, in order to fill the gap left by the Russian embargo.
Oil Technical Analysis: Steady for next week
Oil prices are gearing up for a very eventful calendar last week with, next to the normal weekly data, a lot of headline risk could take place. Oil traders will need to brace for a tension-filled OPEC+ Meeting, which takes place together with the start of COP28. As if that is not enough, the World LNG Summit will take place in Athens. So traders will need to have nerves of steel to survive next week’s headline-driven trading environment.
On the upside, $80.00 is the resistance to watch out for. Should crude be able to jump above that again, look for $84.00 (purple line) as the next level to see some selling pressure or profit taking. Should Oil prices be able to consolidate above there, the topside for this fall near $93.00 could come back into play.
On the downside, traders are seeing a soft floor forming near $74.00. This level is acting as the last line of defence before entering $70.00 and lower. Once in that area, markets might factor in the risk of a surprise intervention from OPEC+ to jack up Oil prices once again.
US WTI Crude Oil: Daily Chart
WTI Oil FAQs
What is WTI Oil?
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
What factors drive the price of WTI Oil?
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil?
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 13 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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