NZD/USD Price Analysis: RBNZ in focus, key levels and market structure to watch
|- NZD/USD is holding in a tight range into the RBNZ with breakout points above 0.6750 and below 0.6730 eyed.
- The longer-term charts are bearish, so the RBNZ will need to surprise if the bulls are to stay in control.
NZD/USD is the focus and a 25bp rate hike should reinforce NZD's carry status against the low-yielders, while the prospects of a 50bp hike increase would be an added benefit and will be expected to pole volt 0.6750.
The following is an analysis of the longer-term charts and the near term from an hourly perspective heading into the event.
NZD/USD weekly chart
The weekly chart is bearish while below the M-formation's neckline resistance between 0.6730 and the 0.6770s. An extension to the downside could be on the cards for the weeks ahead with 0.6385 eyed as a -61.8% Fibo target and the confluence with prior lows.
NZD/USD daily chart
The daily chart shows the price eating its way into resistance but is overextended and could be due for a correction in coming sessions. The 38.2% Fibo meets with prior structure near 0.6690. If this were to hold, then the bulls could seek to engage at a discount and target a higher test in the weekly resistance towards the 0.67790s.
NZD/USD H1 chart
Should there be an uber hawkish surprise from the RBNZ, then a break of 0.6750 opens risk for a deeper test of the weekly resistance in the 0.6770s.
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