New Fitch Ratings modelling sees an upswing in US GDP growth, German contraction in 2024
|The Fitch Ratings agency has revised its 'Nowcast' modelling to track and forecast Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth.
According to the ratings agency's release, a more accurate forecasting model now sees higher US GDP growth at 0.6% QoQ and German growth at -0.1% QoQ.
Key quotes
The enhanced framework introduces new nowcast models for the US, Japan and the eurozone ‘Big4’ economies (Germany, France, Italy and Spain).
The new methodology employs a mixed-data sampling (MIDAS) regression model, which uses monthly indicators to predict GDP growth.
The new models point towards a positive surprise for US GDP at 0.6% qoq (non-annualised), compared to our December 2023 Global Economic Outlook report, and a negative surprise for Germany at -1.0% qoq.
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