Merck trade idea: How to play the long term trend decelerating higher

Most consistent gainer

Using the VolatilityMarkets software to structure a Merck trend following trade idea

Part 1) Introduction

VolatilityMarkets suggests trend-inspired trades that capitalize on market trends.

In the short term Merck has been accelerating higher. In the long term Merck has been decelerating higher. With the long term trend being the stronger of the two, we propose a long trade idea with a time horizon.

Part 2) Trade Idea Details

2A) Trade Idea Graph

2b) Intraday Predictions

Buy $ 149,380 USD of Merck, take profit at $ 110.7768 level with 49.99% odds for a $ 1,000 USD gain,stop out at $ 109.3034 with 50.0% odds for a $ 1,000 USD loss through O/N time horizon

Part 3) MRK Trend Analysis

MRK last price was $ 110.04. The long-term trend decelerating higher is stronger than the short-term trend accelerating higher. This trade goes long when the price was moving higher but decelerating over the past 19 days.

Part 4) MRK value analysis

Over the past 19 days, the MRK price increased 14 days and decreased 5 days. For every up day, there were 0.36 down days. The average return on days where the price increased is 1.2041% The average return on days where the price decreased is -1.1223% Over the past 19 Days, the price has increased by 11.72% percent. Over the past 19 days, the average return per day has been 0.6168% percent.

Part 5) MRK worst/best case scenario analysis

Within 1 week, our worst case scenario where we are 95% certain that this level won't trade for MRK, is $ 107.8817 , and the best case scenario overnight is $ 112.1983 . levels outside of this range are unlikely, but still possible, to trade. We are 50% confident that $ 109.3034 could trade and that $ 110.7768 could trade. These levels are within statistical probability.

Key takeaways

• Price today $ 110.04.

• Over the past 19 days, the MRK price increased 14 days and decreased 5 Days.

• For every up day, there were 0.36 down days.

• The average return on days where the price increased is 1.2041%.

• The average return on days where the price decreased is -1.1223%.

• Over the past 19 Days, the price has increased by 11.72% percent.

• Over the past 19 days, the average return per day has been 0.6168% percent.

• Over the past 19 days, The price has on average been decelerating: $ -0.0294 per day higher.

• Over the last session, the price increased by $ 1.04.

• Over the last session, the price increased by 0.9451 %.

• Over the last session, the price accelerated by $ 0.29.