Japanese Yen refreshes daily low against USD; seems vulnerable amid BoJ uncertainty
|- The Japanese Yen struggles to capitalize on modest intraday gains amid the BoJ rate-hike uncertainty.
- The risk-on mood further undermines the safe-haven JPY and lifts USD/JPY back closer to mid-154.00s.
- Retreating US bond yields prompts some USD profit-taking and could support the lower-yielding JPY.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) meets with a fresh supply following an intraday uptick against its American counterpart, pushing the USD/JPY pair closer to mid-154.00s, or a daily top heading into the European session on Monday. The uncertainty tied to the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) rate-hike plans, along with the prevalent risk-on environment, turn out to be key factors undermining the safe-haven JPY.
Meanwhile, expectations that US President-elect Donald Trump's policies could reignite inflation and limit the scope for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates further act as a tailwind for the US Dollar (USD). This further offers support to the USD/JPY pair. That said, intervention fears and a sharp fall in the US Treasury bond yields could limit losses for the lower-yielding JPY and cap the pair.
Japanese Yen bears have the upper hand amid BoJ rate-hike uncertainty and risk-on mood
- US President-elect Donald Trump nominated prominent investor Scott Bessent – a fiscal conservative – as Treasury Secretary, reassuring the bond market and pulling yields lower across the board.
- The US Dollar, having risen for eight weeks in a row, retreats from its highest level since November 2022 as traders opt to take some profits off the table following the post-US election blowout rally.
- Despite stronger consumer inflation data from Japan and Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda's hawkish remarks, domestic political uncertainty could restrict the BoJ from tightening its monetary policy.
- Meanwhile, investors have been scaling back their bets for another 25-basis-points rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December amid worries that Trump's policies could boost inflationary pressures.
- According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders are pricing in just over a 55% probability that the Fed will lower borrowing costs next month and a nearly 45% chance for an on-hold decision.
- The optimism over more business-friendly policies from the new Trump administration was reinforced by the flash US PMIs, showing that business activity climbed to a 31-month high in November.
- S&P Global reported on Friday that the Composite US PMI rose to 55.3 this month, or the highest level since April 2022, suggesting that economic growth probably accelerated in the fourth quarter.
- Reports suggest that a ceasefire deal between Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah is very close, which further fuels the risk-on mood and might cap the upside for the safe-haven JPY.
- The focus this week will be squarely on the US Personal Consumption and Expenditure (PCE) Price Index data, which could offer cues on the Fed's interest rate path and provide a fresh impetus.
USD/JPY could appreciate further and aim to reclaim the 155.00 psychological mark
From a technical perspective, acceptance below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) now seems to have set the stage for a further depreciating move for the USD/JPY pair. That said, any further slide might continue to find some support near the 153.30-153.25 region. This is followed by the 153.00 round figure, which if broken decisively will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and pave the way for deeper losses. Spot prices might then accelerate the fall towards the next relevant support near mid-152.00s en route to the very important 200-day SMA, currently pegged near the 152.00 mark.
On the flip side, the 154.00 round figure now seems to act as an immediate hurdle ahead of the Asian session top, around the 154.40 region. Some follow-through buying should allow the USD/JPY pair to reclaim the 155.00 psychological mark and climb further towards the 155.40-155.50 supply zone. A sustained strength beyond the latter should pave the way for a move beyond the 156.00 mark, towards retesting the multi-month top, around the 156.75 region touched on November 15.
US Dollar PRICE Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.64% | -0.55% | 0.25% | -0.11% | -0.20% | 0.03% | -0.12% | |
| EUR | 0.64% | -0.08% | 0.28% | -0.06% | 0.36% | 0.09% | -0.06% | |
| GBP | 0.55% | 0.08% | 0.35% | 0.02% | 0.44% | 0.17% | 0.02% | |
| JPY | -0.25% | -0.28% | -0.35% | -0.33% | -0.01% | -0.14% | -0.16% | |
| CAD | 0.11% | 0.06% | -0.02% | 0.33% | 0.05% | 0.14% | -0.04% | |
| AUD | 0.20% | -0.36% | -0.44% | 0.00% | -0.05% | -0.27% | -0.42% | |
| NZD | -0.03% | -0.09% | -0.17% | 0.14% | -0.14% | 0.27% | -0.15% | |
| CHF | 0.12% | 0.06% | -0.02% | 0.16% | 0.04% | 0.42% | 0.15% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
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