IEA lowers 2024 global demand growth forecast by 100,000 bpd to 960,000 bpd
|In its monthly oil market report published on Wednesday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) slashed the 2024 global oil demand growth forecast by 100,000 bpd to 960,000 barrels per day (bpd).
Additional takeaways
Sees 2025 oil demand growth at 1 mln bpd amid a muted economy and clean energy technology deployment.
Non-OPEC+ producers led by united states will make up three-quarters of production capacity increase to 2030.
Demand growth to be led by Asian economies, especially by road transport in India and jet fuel, petchems in China.
Oil demand in advanced economies will fall to less than 43 mln bpd by 2030 from close to 46 mln bpd in 2023.
Global oil demand will rise to nearly 106 mln bpd toward end of decade from around 102 mln bpd in 2023.
Supply surplus this decade should make oil companies examine their strategies.
Global oil demand set to peak by 2029 at 105.6 mln bpd and contract narrowly in 2030.
By 2030 oil supply capacity will rise to nearly 114 mln bpd or 8 mln bpd above global demand.
Market reaction
At the time of writing, WTI is testing eight-day highs near $78.50, up 0.55% on the day.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 13 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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