IEA lifts 2025 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.1 million bpd
|In its monthly oil market report published on Thursday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) raised 2025 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) from 990,000 bpd.
Additional takeaways
2024 world oil demand growth forecast seen at 840k bpd versus the previous forecast of 920k bpd.
Sees comfortable oil supply in 2025.
Predicts a 1.4 million barrels per day oversupply by 2025 if OPEC+ increases production.
Reports preliminary data showing global oil reserves increased in November.
OPEC+ delay in supply cuts significantly reduces 2025 oil surplus.
Reports OECD industry stockpiles decreased by 30.9 million barrels in October.
Non-OPEC+ supply to increase by almost 1.5 million barrels per day in 2024-2025.
Global oil supply to increase by 630,000 barrels per day in 2024 and 1.9 million in 2025.
China's oil demand to increase by 140k barrels per day in 2024 and 220k barrels per day in 2025.
Current balances indicate a 950k bpd supply overhang in 2025 if OPEC+ starts unwinding voluntary cuts by the end of March 2025.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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