Forex Today: Investors on edge ahead of Fed rate decision, dot plot
|Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, June 14:
Markets have adopted a cautious stance mid-week as investors gear up for the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy announcements. The Fed will also release the revised Summary of Economic Projections, the so-called dot plot, and FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell will comment on the policy outlook in a press conference. The US economic docket will feature the Producer Price Index (PPI) for May and Eurostat will publish Industrial Production data for April.
FOMC Preview: Banks expect the Fed to take a break, but signal higher rates ahead.
Inflation in the US, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), declined to 4% on a yearly basis in May from 4.9% in April, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced on Tuesday. The Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, edged lower to 5.3% from 5.5% in the same period, as expected. The CME Group FedWatch Tool's probability of a 25 bps Fed rate hike fell below 10% after the inflation report.
Previewing the FOMC June meeting, "we expect the Fed to maintain rates unchanged. Focus will be on communication around potential hike in July & the updated dots," said Danske Bank analysts. "The Fed is unlikely to close the door for hikes, but we doubt they will materialize."
The US Dollar Index consolidates Tuesday's losses below 103.50 and US stock index futures trade mixed. Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield fluctuates near 3.8%.
EUR/USD climbed to its highest level in nearly a month at 1.0825 on Tuesday before going into a consolidation phase at around 1.0800 on Wednesday.
GBP/USD registered strong gains on Tuesday and continued to stretch higher early Wednesday. The pair was last seen trading above 1.2600.
USD/JPY closed the third straight trading day in positive territory on Tuesday but lost its bullish momentum after testing 140.00.
Gold price climbed to $1,970 with the initial reaction to soft US inflation data on Tuesday but reversed its direction amid a decisive rebound in the US Treasury bond yields in the late American session. XAU/USD clings to modest recovery gains at around $1,950 in the European session on Wednesday.
Bitcoin remains directionless and continues to move up and down in a narrow channel slightly below $26,000. Similarly, Ethereum struggles to break out of its weekly range while fluctuating near $1,750.
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