Gold price climbs closer to weekly top on softer USD, focus remains on US NFP report
|- Gold price gains positive traction on Friday amid the emergence of some USD selling.
- Geopolitical risk further benefits the safe-haven XAU/USD and contributes to the move up.
- Diminishing odds for an aggressive Fed easing might cap the metal ahead of the US NFP.
Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some buyers on Friday and climbs to the $2,668 area, or the top end of its weekly range heading into the European session. The US Dollar (USD) retreats a bit from a one-month peak touched on Thursday and for now, seems to have stalled this week's goodish recovery move from its lowest level since July 2023. This, along with geopolitical risks stemming from the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, turn out to be key factors driving some haven flows towards the precious metal.
That said, diminishing odds for a more aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed) should help limit any meaningful USD fall and cap gains for the non-yielding Gold price. Traders might also prefer to wait for the release of the closely-watched US monthly employment details before positioning for the next leg of a directional move. Nevertheless, the XAU/USD remains close to the all-time peak touched last week and the fundamental backdrop seems tilted firmly in favor of bullish traders.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price benefits from modest USD downtick; looks to US NFP for fresh impetus
- The US Department of Labor (DOL) reported on Thursday that the number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits increased marginally to 225K during the week ended September 28 as compared to the 218K previous.
- This comes on top of a larger-than-anticipated increase in the US private-sector employment in September and an unexpected rise in the number of available jobs in August, providing evidence of a stable and still resilient labor market.
- Separately, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said that its Non-Manufacturing PMI rose to 54.9 in September, or the highest level since February 2023, suggesting that the economy remained on a solid footing in the third quarter.
- This further tempers market expectations for another oversized interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve and lifts the US Dollar to a one-month top, which, in turn, is seen as a key factor acting as a headwind for the non-yielding Gold price.
- Hezbollah launched approximately 230 projectiles from Lebanon into Israeli territory on Thursday and Israel launched strikes early on Friday targeting Hezbollah's intelligence headquarters in the southern suburbs of Lebanese capital Beirut.
- Meanwhile, Israel will reportedly carry out a very significant retaliation within days to Iran's onslaught of nearly 200 ballistic missiles on Tuesday night, raising the risk of a full-blown war and lending support to the XAU/USD.
- Traders now look forward to the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which is expected to show that the economy added 140K jobs in September slightly lower than the 142K previous, and the Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.2%.
- This, along with Average Hourly Earnings, will be looked upon for cues about the size of the Fed rate cut in November, which will play a key role in driving the USD demand and provide a fresh directional impetus to the commodity.
Technical Outlook: Gold price seems poised to surpass all-time peak and aim to conquer the $2,700 mark
From a technical perspective, the range-bound price action might still be categorized as a bullish consolidation phase against the backdrop of the recent strong runup to the record peak. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart are holding comfortably in positive territory and have also eased from the overbought zone. This, in turn, favors bullish traders and suggests that the path of least resistance for the Gold price remains to the upside. In the meantime, the $2,672-$2,673 area could offer immediate resistance ahead of the $2,685-2,686 zone, or the all-time high touched last week. This is closely followed by the $2,700 mark, which if conquered will set the stage for an extension of a well-established multi-month-old uptrend.
On the flip side, the weekly low, around the $2,625-2,624 area, which coincides with a short-term ascending channel resistance breakpoint, might continue to offer support and act as a key pivotal point. A convincing break below might prompt aggressive technical selling and drag the Gold price below the $2,600 mark, towards the next relevant support near the $2,560 zone. The corrective decline could extend further towards the $2,535-2,530 support before the XAU/USD eventually drops to the $2,500 psychological mark.
US Dollar PRICE Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Euro.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.03% | -0.05% | -0.58% | -0.01% | -0.08% | 0.03% | -0.19% | |
| EUR | -0.03% | -0.07% | -0.60% | -0.02% | -0.12% | 0.02% | -0.24% | |
| GBP | 0.05% | 0.07% | -0.52% | 0.05% | -0.05% | 0.07% | -0.18% | |
| JPY | 0.58% | 0.60% | 0.52% | 0.57% | 0.49% | 0.59% | 0.35% | |
| CAD | 0.01% | 0.02% | -0.05% | -0.57% | -0.08% | 0.06% | -0.23% | |
| AUD | 0.08% | 0.12% | 0.05% | -0.49% | 0.08% | 0.13% | -0.17% | |
| NZD | -0.03% | -0.02% | -0.07% | -0.59% | -0.06% | -0.13% | -0.27% | |
| CHF | 0.19% | 0.24% | 0.18% | -0.35% | 0.23% | 0.17% | 0.27% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
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