Gold price attracts some sellers on US Dollar recovery, potential downside seems limited
|Most recent article: Gold pulls back to $2,500 as USD recovers
- Gold price loses ground in Wednesday’s early European session.
- The deteriorating situation in the Middle East and the Fed’s dovish stance underpin the Gold price.
- Traders await the speeches from the Fed’s Waller and Bostic on Wednesday.
The Gold price (XAU/USD) loses momentum amid the modest rebound of the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday. However, the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East might help limit its losses. Additionally, US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium last week, signalling “time has come” to begin lowering interest rates, might support the precious metal as it reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-paying assets.
Investors will take more cues from the Fed's Christopher Waller and Raphael Bostic speeches on Wednesday for some hints about the US interest rate path. The attention will shift to the second estimate of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized for the second quarter (Q2) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data, which will be published on Thursday and Friday, respectively. The better-than-estimated outcomes could lift the US Dollar (USD) and cap the upside for the USD-denominated Gold price.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price loses traction, Fed rate cut bets might cap its downside
- Thousands of troops from special units mobilized for a large-scale operation in the northern West Bank, which is anticipated to take several weeks. The report said the army has conducted the largest military operation in the West Bank since 2002, and the operation will continue for several days.
- “The prospect of falling interest rates is also attracting investors. According to Bloomberg, Gold ETF holdings rose by 15 tonnes last week to the highest level in six months. Speculative interest is particularly strong. The net long position of speculative investors rose to around 193,000 contracts in the week to August 20th, at the same time as Gold hit an all-time high, its highest level in almost four and a half years,” noted Commerzbank’s commodity strategist Carsten Fritsch.
- The Conference Board's US Consumer Confidence Index improved to a six-month high, rising to 103.3 in August from an upwardly revised 101.9 in July.
- The US Housing Price Index declined by 0.1% MoM in June, below the market consensus of a 0.2% increase, the Federal Housing Federal Agency showed Tuesday.
- According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the rate futures markets have fully priced in a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut in September, while the possibility of a deeper rate cut stands at 34.5%. Traders see 100 bps Fed easing this year.
Technical Analysis: Gold price keeps the bullish vibe in the longer term
The Gold price edges lower on the day. The precious metal remains capped under a five-month-old ascending channel upper boundary and the record high. A broader positive outlook of yellow metal remains unchanged as it holds above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily chart. The upward momentum is supported by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), which stands above the midline near 64.70, affirming continued bullish pressure in the near term.
The key resistance level for XAU/USD emerges at $2,530, representing the confluence of the all-time high and the upper boundary of the trend channel. A bullish breakout above this level could make a play for the $2,600 psychological barrier.
On the downside, the initial support level is seen at the $2,500 round figure. A breach of the mentioned level could lead to further losses near $2,470, the low of August 22. The next contention level to watch is $2,432, the low of August 15.
US Dollar price in the last 7 days
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies in the last 7 days. US Dollar was the strongest against the Euro.
| USD | EUR | GBP | CAD | AUD | JPY | NZD | CHF | |
| USD | -0.15% | -1.48% | -1.15% | -0.56% | -0.61% | -1.26% | -1.15% | |
| EUR | 0.15% | -1.33% | -1.00% | -0.40% | -0.45% | -1.12% | -1.00% | |
| GBP | 1.46% | 1.31% | 0.33% | 0.90% | 0.90% | 0.22% | 0.34% | |
| CAD | 1.14% | 0.99% | -0.32% | 0.59% | 0.54% | -0.10% | 0.02% | |
| AUD | 0.55% | 0.40% | -0.91% | -0.59% | -0.05% | -0.70% | -0.59% | |
| JPY | 0.61% | 0.42% | -0.86% | -0.56% | 0.06% | -0.70% | -9956.88% | |
| NZD | 1.25% | 1.10% | -0.22% | 0.11% | 0.69% | 0.65% | 0.11% | |
| CHF | 1.14% | 0.97% | -0.32% | 0.00% | 0.58% | 0.54% | -0.11% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote).
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
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