Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD holds below $2,650 on US Dollar rebound
|- Gold price trades in negative territory near $2,645 in Monday’s early Asian session.
- Trump trades and the Fed’s cautious stance undermine the yellow metal price.
- The geopolitical risks might help limit Gold’s losses.
Gold price (XAU/USD) edges lower to around $2,645 during the early Asian session on Monday. A recovery in the US Dollar broadly weighs on the precious metal. However, persistent geopolitical tensions could cap the downside for XAU/USD.
The yellow metal declined 3% in November, its worst monthly loss since September 2023. A victory of Donald Trump in the US Presidential election in November fuelled expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would adopt a cautious approach to further rate cuts, which boost the Greenback and drag the USD-denominated Gold lower.
Nonetheless, the escalating geopolitical tensions could boost the Gold price, a traditional safe-haven asset. Russian and Syrian jets have carried out air strikes on Syrian rebels who are advancing through the country after seizing its second-largest city, per Reuters. "Persistent global uncertainties continue to drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset," Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said in a note.
Traders brace for the US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) on Monday for fresh impetus. The Manufacturing PMI is projected to rise to 47.5 in November from 46.5 in the previous reading. On Friday, the attention will shift to the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) for November.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
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