Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD hangs near multi-week low, just above $1,900 mark
|- Gold price remains depressed near its lowest level since June amid a bullish US Dollar.
- Bets for one more rate hike by Federal Reserve continue to lend support to the Greenback.
- China's economic woes assist the safe-haven XAU/USD to defend $1,900, at least for now.
Gold price struggles to gain any meaningful traction during the Asian session on Tuesday and languishes near its lowest level since June 6 touched the previous day. The XAU/USD manages to hold above the $1,900 mark, at least for the time being, though the bias still seems tilted in favour of bearish traders and supports prospects for an extension of the recent downward trajectory witnessed over the past four weeks or so.
The US Dollar (USD) holds steady just below its highest level in over two months and turns out to be a key factor undermining the Gold price. Growing acceptance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates higher for longer remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields and continues to act as a tailwind for the Greenback. In fact, market participants seem convinced that the Fed will stick to its hawkish stance and have been pricing in the possibility of one more 25 basis points (bps) lift-off by the end of this year.
The bets were lifted by the incoming macro data from the United States (US), which suggested that the battle to bring inflation back to the Fed's 2% target is far from being won. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) last week showed a moderate rise in consumer prices in July. Adding to this, the US PPI climbed slightly more than expected and supported prospects for further tightening by the Fed. This pushed the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond to a nine-month high on Monday and lend support to the USD.
Elevated US bond yields, meanwhile, further seem to weigh on the non-yielding Gold price, though concerns about the health of the global economy, particularly in China, help limit the downside. The market fears were further fueled by disappointing Chines data released this Tuesday, which showed that Retail Sales and Industrial Production grew less than anticipated in July. This overshadows surprise rate cuts by the People's Bank of China (PBoC) and does little to boost investors' confidence, benefitting the safe-haven precious metal.
Market participants now look forward to the US economic docket, featuring the release of monthly Retail Sales figures and the Empire State Manufacturing Index later during the early North American session. This, along with the US bond yields, might influence the USD price dynamics and provide some impetus to the Gold price. Apart from this, the broader risk sentiment could contribute to producing short-term trading opportunities. Nevertheless, the fundamental backdrop, meanwhile, still seem tilted in favour of bearish traders.
Technical levels to watch
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