Gold price approaches all-time highs though Fed Powell maintains hawkish rhetoric
|- Gold price continues its winning spell, ignores Fed Powell's hawkish narrative.
- The appeal for the US Dollar weakens as February’s PMI figures cast doubts over the strong US economic outlook.
- US ADP shows that private payrolls were 140K in February vs. expectations of 150K.
Gold price (XAU/USD) remains firm near $2,140.00 in Wednesday’s early New York session as the United States ADP Research Institute has reported lower private payrolls in February than market expectations. US private employers hired 140K job-seekers, lower than expectations of 150K, but were higher than the revised figure of 111K in January.
The precious metal continues to move higher despite Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell avoids to offer a concrete timing for rate cuts. Prepared statement by Fed Powell in the semi-annual monetary policy report delivered to Congress indicated that Powell is not assured that inflation will return to 2%. Powell added that interest rates are likely at their peak in the current tightening cycle. He further added "it will likely be appropriate to begin dialing back policy restraint at some point this year."
In today's session, market participants will focus on the JOLTS Job Openings data for January, which will provide more insights into labor demand.
Daily digest market movers: Gold price extends its upside as US private payrolls miss expectations
- Gold price exhibits a firm-footing even though Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has not provided a significant guidance on the time frame and the degree of rate cuts this year. Powell said in his prepared remarks that the economic outlook is uncertain and he is not assured that inflation will come down to the 2% target.
- Jerome Powell said "We do not expect it will be appropriate to reduce policy rates until we have greater confidence in inflation moving sustainably toward 2%."
- Market expectations for rate cuts in the June policy meeting remain firm despite Jerome Powell avoids to provide a concrete timeframe for policy normalization. As per the CME Fedwatch tool, the chances for a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut for June’s policy meeting have increased to 59% from 53% on Tuesday.
- Meanwhile, market participants await the US JOLTS Job Openings for January, which will be published at 15:00 GMT, respectively. US employers are forecasted to have posted 8.9 million new job openings in January against 9.027 million in December.
- The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, continues its losing spell for the fourth trading session on Wednesday. The USD Index drops to almost two-week low near 103.50 as weak ISM Manufacturing and Services PMIs for February have pointed to slowing economic growth.
Technical Analysis: Gold price reclaims $2,140
Gold price approaches the all-time high near $2,145. The yellow metal trades inside Tuesday’s trading range. The near-term appeal for Gold remains bullish as it has delivered a breakout of the Symmetrical Triangle pattern formed on a daily time frame. The breakout of the aforementioned chart pattern exhibits a volatility expansion, which leads to wider ticks on the upside and heavy volume.
The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds above 60.00, indicating a bullish momentum ahead. The RSI (14) is not showing any divergence signals but has reached overbought territory.
(This story was corrected on March 6 at 11:05 GMT to say, in the technical analysis section, that Gold consolidates around $2,125, not the Pound Sterling.)
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
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