GBP/USD falls to near 1.2750 ahead of BoE Mann speech
|- GBP/USD depreciates as Trump’s potential fiscal policies could delay further Fed rate cuts.
- The US Consumer Price Index data release will be eyed in the North American session.
- The British Pound weakened as mixed UK employment figures indicated a softening labor market for three months ending in September.
GBP/USD extends its losing streak for the fourth successive session, trading around 1.2740 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. This downside of the pair is attributed to a stronger US Dollar (USD) amid optimism around the Trump trades.
The US Dollar strengthens as analysts pointed out that if Trump’s fiscal policies are implemented, they could boost investment, spending, and labor demand, potentially increasing inflation risks. This scenario could prompt the Federal Reserve (Fed) to adopt a more restrictive monetary policy stance.
Traders are now focused on the upcoming US inflation data release on Wednesday for further guidance on future US monetary policy. The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to show a 2.6% year-over-year increase for October, with the core CPI anticipated to rise by 3.3%.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) weakened following mixed UK labor market data. On Tuesday, employment figures indicated a softening labor market for the three months ending in September. The ILO Unemployment Rate increased to 4.3% from 4.0% in the previous period, surpassing the expected 4.1%. During the same period, Employment Change showed that UK employers added 219K new jobs, significantly lower than the previous release of 373K.
The Bank of England’s (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee external member Catherine Mann is scheduled to participate in a panel about Female Central Bankers at the BNP Paribas Global Market Conference on Wednesday. Investors would like to observe Mann's speech to gain potential insights into how the BoE plans to navigate the UK's imbalanced economy amid ongoing inflation concerns.
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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