GBP/USD consolidates below one-year top, looks to UK CPI for fresh directional impetus
|- GBP/USD remains confined in a familiar range held since the beginning of this week.
- September Fed rate cut bets continue to undermine the USD and lend some support.
- Diminishing bets for the August BoE rate cut favor bulls ahead of the UK CPI report.
The GBP/USD pair extends its sideways consolidative price move for the third successive day on Wednesday and trades around the 1.2970 region during the Asian session. Spot prices, meanwhile, remain well within the striking distance of a one-year peak touched on Monday and the fundamental backdrop supports prospects for an extension of a two-week-old uptrend.
The US Dollar (USD) draws some support from the upbeat US Retail Sales data released on Tuesday, which pointed to consumer resilience and bolstered economic growth prospects for the second quarter. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor acting as a headwind for the GBP/USD pair as traders keenly await the crucial UK consumer inflation figures before positioning for the next leg of a directional move.
The headline UK CPI is expected to come in at 0.1% for June as compared to 0.3% in the previous month, while the yearly rate is anticipated to hold steady at 2.0% YoY. Heading into the key data risk, diminishing odds of a rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE) in August, especially after Britain's economy grew more quickly than expected in May, continues to lend some support to the British Pound (GBP) and the GBP/USD pair.
Meanwhile, the markets are now pricing in over a 90% chance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower borrowing costs in September, which keeps the US Treasury bond yields depressed near a multi-month low and should cap the USD. This, in turn, validates the near-term positive outlook for the GBP/USD pair, suggesting that any immediate market reaction to the softer UK CPI report is more likely to be limited.
Economic Indicator
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
The United Kingdom (UK) Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly basis, is a measure of consumer price inflation – the rate at which the prices of goods and services bought by households rise or fall – produced to international standards. It is the inflation measure used in the government’s target. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Next release: Wed Jul 17, 2024 06:00
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 2%
Previous: 2%
Source: Office for National Statistics
The Bank of England is tasked with keeping inflation, as measured by the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) at around 2%, giving the monthly release its importance. An increase in inflation implies a quicker and sooner increase of interest rates or the reduction of bond-buying by the BOE, which means squeezing the supply of pounds. Conversely, a drop in the pace of price rises indicates looser monetary policy. A higher-than-expected result tends to be GBP bullish.
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