fxs_header_sponsor_anchor

News

France: The unpredictable election approaches its climax - HSBC

Analysts at HSBC explain that on 23 April, French voters will go to the polls for the first round of what has already been a highly unpredictable presidential race and the second round will follow on 7 May.  

Key Quotes

“In a typical first round, media sources usually announce their own estimate of the result, based on exit polls at approximately 8pm local time (neither polls nor results can be released before 8pm according to the electoral law). We would expect a similar timeline on 23 April, although this could be affected by the unusually tight and diverse race. Plausible scenarios can be created where any of the leading four candidates qualify for the second round.  The official results may not be announced until a few days later -- the deadline for the Constitutional court to do this is not until 8pm on Wednesday 26 April.”  

“The first set of preliminary data on the day will come from the Interior Ministry at around 12pm, when it will release its first turnout estimate.  This will be updated at approximately 5pm. A low turnout could favour the National Front candidate, Marine Le Pen.”

“French electoral law prohibits any release of exit poll data before 8pm local time, but this only applies to the French media. It is possible that some international news websites outside of France might release flash estimates earlier. In 2012, some Belgian and Swiss websites stated before 3pm that Hollande would win the second round (Le Monde, 7 May 2012).”

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.


RELATED CONTENT

Loading ...



Copyright © 2024 FOREXSTREET S.L., All rights reserved.