Forex Today: US Dollar tumbles as Treasury yields reverse course
|The global PMI surveys are due on Tuesday, providing the first glimpse of economic activity during October. Australia and Japan will kick off the PMI, followed by European countries, and ending with the United States. Also scheduled for Tuesday are UK employment data and the GfK German Consumer Confidence Survey.
Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, October 24:
The Treasury market was the center of attention on Monday. The 10-year Treasury yield initially rose above 5.00% for the first time since 2007, but then sharply reversed, falling to 4.83%. The rally in Treasuries weighed on the US Dollar, which tumbled and reached one-month lows.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) slid to 105.51 and closed at 105.60, down 0.60%, with the chart pointing to further weakness. On Wall Street, equity prices showed mixed performance. The decline in US yields offered some support. The Dow Jones lost 0.58%, while the Nasdaq gained 0.27%. On Tuesday, companies such as Microsoft, Alphabet, Visa, Coca-Cola, and Spotify, among others, will release their earnings results.
The critical report to watch on Tuesday will be the US S&P Global PMI. On Thursday, the preliminary estimate of the US Q3 Gross Domestic Product and the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Index will be released. There won't be any speeches from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials this week due to the blackout period ahead of next week's FOMC meeting.
EUR/USD jumped to one-month highs, boosted by a weaker US Dollar, breaking a downtrend line. The pair closed above 1.0650. The key report to watch will be the preliminary Eurozone October PMI, where market participants anticipate a reading close to last month's figures. In Germany, the GfK Consumer Confidence Survey is also due. The European Central Bank (ECB) will hold its monetary policy meeting on Thursday, and no change in interest rates is expected.
GBP/USD soared convincingly, rising above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) to the 1.2250 area. The UK will release employment data on Tuesday, originally scheduled to be released last week but postponed due to poor response rates. The Unemployment Rate is expected to remain at 4.3%. UK PMI data is expected to show a modest improvement in October.
USD/JPY dropped to 149.55 and cannot move significantly away from the 150.00 area. The Japanese Yen was among the worst performers, despite declining yields. The Jibun Bank PMI is due on Tuesday.
AUD/USD held above the 0.6280 support area and rose to 0.6340. It continues to trade sideways near monthly lows. The S&P Global PMI is due on Tuesday. Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock will deliver a speech on "Monetary Policy in Australia: Complementarities and Trade-offs". On Wednesday, the monthly and quarterly Consumer Price Index will be released.
USD/CAD failed to benefit from a weaker US Dollar and continued to trade sideways around 1.3700. On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada will announce its decision on monetary policy.
Analysts at TD Securities on BoC:
All eyes will be on the Bank of Canada amid an otherwise quiet week for economic data. The downside surprise on September CPI has helped to reinforce expectations for the Bank to hold rates at 5.00%, but we look for the Bank to retain a hawkish tone as it keeps all options on the table going forward.
Crude oil prices declined on Monday. The WTI barrel dropped to its lowest level in a week, reaching $85.66.
Gold pulled back despite the sharp slide in US yields; XAU/USD found support above $1,970. Meanwhile, Silver experienced losses and dropped below $23.00.
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