Forex Today: Markets await US PMI data as trading conditions are set to normalize
|Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, September 3:
Financial markets remain quiet on the second trading day of the week. Later in the day, August ISM Manufacturing PMI data from the US will be watched closely by investors. With the long weekend in the US and Canada coming to an end on Tuesday, trading conditions are expected to normalize during the American trading hours.
The US Dollar (USD) Index registered marginal losses on Monday as volumes remained thin. Early Tuesday, the index holds steady above 101.50 and the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield fluctuates at around 3.9%. Meanwhile, US stock index futures trade in negative territory. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is forecast to edge higher to 47.5 in August from 46.8 in July.
US Dollar PRICE Last 7 days
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies last 7 days. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.86% | 0.39% | 1.13% | 0.15% | 0.31% | 0.06% | 0.61% | |
| EUR | -0.86% | -0.46% | 0.26% | -0.72% | -0.54% | -0.83% | -0.24% | |
| GBP | -0.39% | 0.46% | 0.75% | -0.24% | -0.09% | -0.34% | 0.22% | |
| JPY | -1.13% | -0.26% | -0.75% | -0.96% | -0.80% | -1.07% | -0.50% | |
| CAD | -0.15% | 0.72% | 0.24% | 0.96% | 0.16% | -0.09% | 0.48% | |
| AUD | -0.31% | 0.54% | 0.09% | 0.80% | -0.16% | -0.28% | 0.31% | |
| NZD | -0.06% | 0.83% | 0.34% | 1.07% | 0.09% | 0.28% | 0.57% | |
| CHF | -0.61% | 0.24% | -0.22% | 0.50% | -0.48% | -0.31% | -0.57% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
In the early European session, the data from Switzerland showed that the annual Consumer Price Index rose 1.1% on a yearly basis in August. This reading followed the 1.3% increase recorded in July and came in below the market expectation of 1.2%. Other data from Switzerland showed that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded at an annual rate of 1.8% in the second quarter, up from 0.6% in the first quarter. USD/CHF largely ignored these figures and was last seen moving sideways above 0.8500.
After closing the first day of the week in positive territory, EUR/USD struggles to preserve its recovery momentum and edges lower toward 1.1050 in the early European session on Tuesday.
GBP/USD failed to make a decisive move in either direction and ended the day virtually unchanged on Monday. The pair stays on the back foot in the European morning and declines toward 1.3100.
Gold touched its lowest level in a week at $2,490 on Monday but managed to erase a portion of its daily losses. XAU/USD holds steady on Tuesday but remains below $2,500.
USD/JPY closed the fourth consecutive trading day in positive territory on Monday and reached its highest level in nearly two weeks above 147.00. The pair stays under bearish pressure early Tuesday and falls toward 146.00.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
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