Forex Today: ECB and SNB rate decision, US data to keep action going
|Here is what you need to know on Thursday, December 12:
The European Central Bank (ECB) and the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will announce monetary policy decisions following the last policy meeting of the year on Thursday. In the second half of the day, weekly Initial Jobless Claims and November Producer Price Index (PPI) data from the US will be watched closely by market participants.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Wednesday that annual inflation in the US, as measured by the change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), edged higher to 2.7% in November from 2.6% in October, as anticipated. On a monthly basis, the CPI and the core CPI both rose 0.3% to match analysts' estimates. The US Dollar (USD) Index continued to edge higher after November inflation report and closed the fourth consecutive day in positive territory. Early Thursday, the USD Index holds steady at around 106.50.
US Dollar PRICE This week
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.44% | -0.27% | 1.65% | -0.12% | -0.55% | 0.48% | 0.49% | |
| EUR | -0.44% | -0.70% | 1.33% | -0.47% | -0.89% | 0.13% | 0.10% | |
| GBP | 0.27% | 0.70% | 1.87% | 0.23% | -0.20% | 0.83% | 0.81% | |
| JPY | -1.65% | -1.33% | -1.87% | -1.77% | -2.08% | -1.27% | -1.09% | |
| CAD | 0.12% | 0.47% | -0.23% | 1.77% | -0.38% | 0.60% | 0.58% | |
| AUD | 0.55% | 0.89% | 0.20% | 2.08% | 0.38% | 1.03% | 1.01% | |
| NZD | -0.48% | -0.13% | -0.83% | 1.27% | -0.60% | -1.03% | -0.04% | |
| CHF | -0.49% | -0.10% | -0.81% | 1.09% | -0.58% | -1.01% | 0.04% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
During the Asian trading hours, the data from Australia showed that the Unemployment Rate declined to 3.9% in November from 4.1%. This reading came in better than the market expectation of 4.2%. In this period, Employment Change was up 35.6K, compared to the market forecast of 25K. AUD/USD gathered bullish momentum on upbeat labor market data and was last seen gaining more than 0.8% on the day above 0.6400.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) announced on Wednesday that it lowered the policy rate by 50 basis points to 3.25%, as expected. In its policy statement, however, the BoC adopted a cautious tone regarding further policy easing. The BoC dropped the language about it being reasonable to expect further rate cuts if the economy were to evolve in line with the forecasts. Instead, it said that it will evaluate the need for further rate cuts one decision at a time. USD/CAD edged lower following the BoC decision and registered small daily losses on Wednesday. Early Thursday, the pair stays on the back foot and trades below 1.4150.
USD/CHF closed marginally higher on Wednesday but lost its traction in the European morning on Thursday. At the time of press, the pair was down 0.2% on the day at 0.8825. The SNB is expected to cut the policy rate by 25 bps to 0.75%.
EUR/USD continued to push lower and posted losses for the fourth consecutive trading day on Wednesday. The pair stages a rebound early Thursday and trades comfortably above 1.0500. The ECB is forecast to lower key rates by 25 bps. Following the decision, ECB President Christine Lagarde will deliver the policy statement and respond to questions at a press conference starting at 13:45 GMT.
GBP/USD posted small losses on Wednesday but managed to find a foothold early Thursday. The pair was last seen edging higher toward 1.2800.
USD/JPY fluctuates in a tight range above 152.00 after closing in positive territory on Wednesday.
Gold extended its weekly rally and gained about 1% on Wednesday. XAU/USD stays in a consolidation phase near $2,720 in the European morning on Thursday.
Central banks FAQs
Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%.
A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing.
A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%.
Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.
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