Forex Today: Dollar weakens ahead of US CPI
|The critical report on Tuesday is the US Consumer Price Index. During the Asian session, the Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence Index and the National Australia Bank's Business Survey are due. Later in the day, the UK will report jobs data, Switzerland will release wholesale inflation data, and the Eurozone will publish Q3 GDP and employment numbers.
Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, November 14:
The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell for the second consecutive day, extending its retreat from the 106.00 area to 105.60. The decline in the Greenback was influenced by lower US Treasury yields and higher commodity prices. The 10-year yield dropped to 4.62%, while the 2-year yield fell to 5.02%.
Market attention is focused on US inflation data scheduled for release on Tuesday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to rise by 0.1% in October, with the annual rate slowing from 3.7% in September to 3.36% in October. The core annual rate is forecasted to remain at 4.1%. If the numbers align with expectations, it would reinforce the market's belief that the Federal Reserve has finished raising interest rates.
US CPI Preview: Forecasts from seven major banks, still to the high side of the Fed's target
The EUR/USD held above 1.0650 and climbed to the 1.0700 area, exhibiting sideways movement in the short-term. Eurostat is set to release employment and growth data from the third quarter. Also due is the ZEW survey for November.
The GBP/USD had a bullish bias throughout the day and rose to 1.2280 after staying above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). The UK will report employment data on Tuesday, including Average Earnings.
The USD/CHF reached weekly highs before retracing towards 0.9000. Switzerland's wholesale inflation data is due on Tuesday, and Swiss National Bank (SNB) Chairman Thomas Jordan is scheduled to deliver a speech.
After a five-day decline, the AUD/USD rose, finding support above 0.6330 and approaching 0.6400. On Tuesday, the Westpac Consumer Confidence and the National Australia Bank's Business surveys will be released. The key report of the week will be the employment figures on Thursday. The Q3 Wage Price Index will be relevant on Wednesday.
The NZD/USD found support around the 0.5865 area at the 20-day SMA and rebounded, but could not reclaim 0.5900. Stats NZ will publish the Food Price Index and will begin releasing other monthly price indexes.
The USD/CAD ended the day flat, hovering around 1.3800. The pair remains sideways without clear signals.
Commerzbank on the Canadian Dollar:
The Bank of Canada (BoC) suspended its rate hike cycle for the second time in early September and has kept its key interest rate stable at 5% since then. At the same time, the Fed is discussing another rate hike. This difference in monetary policy is currently supporting USD-CAD. In the coming weeks, however, it is likely to become clear that there will be no further rate hikes in the US either. As we expect a recession in the US next year, while the Canadian economy is likely to achieve a soft landing, we see CAD recovery potential next year.
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