Forex Today: Caution trading despite oil rebound, focus on Eurozone/UK PMIs
|The 10% rebound in oil prices failed to boost the market mood, as investors failed to hold on to the recent optimism spurred by the hopes of US and Europe coronavirus relief package and easing of the lockdown globally. A sense of caution also seeped in, as markets brace for crucial economic data due out from the US and old continent in the day ahead.
The US dollar held steady across the board near two-week highs while the Asian stocks pared gains to trade mixed. The US equity futures turned negative while gold prices extended the bounce above $1710. WTI June futures shot through the 15 handle, in a solid comeback from historic lows.
Across the fx board, most majors traded in tight ranges amid calmer markets. USD/JPY lacked directional bias and hovered around 107.80 levels. AUD/USD slipped briefly below 0.6300, although regained the latter following strong Australian trade data and upbeat comments from Australian PM Morrison. The kiwi also popped above 0.5950 on New Zealand PM Ardern’s remarks on a likely economic stimulus to fight the coronavirus crisis. Meanwhile, USD/CAD faced rejection at 1.4200, as CAD rebounded in sync with oil.
Heading towards the European open, EUR/USD looks to threaten the 1.0800 level while the cable trades modestly flat below 1.2350 ahead of a busy docket.
Main topics in Asia
US Pres. Trump: More States will soon be in a position to gradually reopen
German coalition parties agree further measures to shield workers, companies from coronavirus impact
China reports 10 new coronavirus cases in Mainland as of end-April 22 vs 30 a day earlier
BoJ Interest meeting: Starts April 27 at 9am, expect to conclude it by around noon
Preliminary Aussie Trade Balance: Goods exports rose $8 billion or 29 per cent in March 2020
NZ PM Ardern: Looking at all options to stimulate the economy
Australian PM Morrison: Australia on road back from COVID-19 lockdown
USD/KRW Price Analysis: S. Korean won corrects from three-week lows despite poor GDP
EU’s Valean: Will present safe reopening of air travel next month
China ramps up crude oil stockpiles, as prices collapse
Key focus ahead
It’s a busy Thursday, with the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) reports to dominate on both sides of the Atlantic among other first-tier macro releases.
In the European calendar, the German Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey will drop in at 0600 GMT while the Euro area Preliminary Manufacturing and Services PMI data will start trickling in from 0715 GMT, with the German and Eurozone PMIs expected to grab the most attention. Next of note remains the UK Prelim PMIs due at 0830 GMT.
The European Union (EU) leaders’ Summit scheduled later today via video conferencing will be closely eyed, as they seek to mitigate the economic risks induced by the virus pandemic.
In the NA session, the focus will be on the critical US Jobless Claims data, slated for release at 1230 GMT. The US Markit Manufacturing and Services PMI will be reported at 1345 GMT, soon followed by the New Homes Sales figures.
Against the backdrop of some stabilization seen in oil prices and encouraging coronavirus news, the attention could likely be back on the fundamentals in the day ahead.
EUR/USD trades with a soft tone ahead of European flash PMIs
The euro is prolonging the pessimism seen on Wednesday and pushing EUR/USD to weekly lows in the 1.08 neighborhood. Dismal EZ PMIs could bolster the soft tone around the single currency. EU leaders meet today on the fiscal response.
GBP/USD struggles to find direction above 1.2300 ahead of UK PMI
GBP/USD posts small losses following Wednesday’s upbeat performance. Tory leaders anticipate to be “at the peak” of the outbreak, are criticized for mishandling the coronavirus, UK PMIs to disappoint but $3.2 billion worth of bets say Pound will go up.
UK PMIs Preview: Without light at the end of the tunnel, the only way is down, GBP/USD may fall
Markit's preliminary April PMIs are set to further deteriorate. Without a lockdown exit strategy, businesses will likely remain depressed. GBP/USD has room to fall in response to the data.
Eurozone: Yes, the future of the union is at risk, three scenarios for EUR/USD, including parity
EU leaders are holding a video conference on how to mitigate the coronavirus crisis. EUR/USD will likely move on any decision that may be fateful to the project.
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