EUR/USD remains below 1.0900, further downside seems possible as the ECB decision looms
|- EUR/USD depreciates as the ECB could deliver a 25 basis cut on Main Refinancing Operations and the Deposit Facility.
- The US Dollar Index hovers near its two-month high of 103.35, reached on Monday.
- Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic anticipates just one more interest rate cut of 25 basis points in 2024.
EUR/USD holds its position after a four-day losing streak, trading around 1.0890 during the Asian session on Wednesday. The Euro may face downward pressure as the European Central Bank (ECB) is widely anticipated to implement a 25 basis point cut on both the Main Refinancing Operations and the Deposit Facility Rate during Thursday’s policy meeting.
Traders are expected to closely watch the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data from the Eurozone, set to be released on Thursday, ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) policy decision.
Additionally, the ECB's Monetary Policy Statement and President Christine Lagarde's speech during the post-meeting press conference will be key events of interest, as they may provide insights into the bank's monetary policy direction.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against other six major currencies, maintains its position around its two-month high of 103.35, recorded on Monday. Last week’s strong jobs and inflation data have reduced expectations for aggressive easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2024.
Markets are now forecasting a total of 125 basis points in rate cuts over the next year. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is currently a 94.1% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in November, with no expectation of a larger 50-basis-point reduction.
On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic stated that he anticipates just one more interest rate cut of 25 basis points this year, as reflected in his projections during last month's US central bank meeting. "The median forecast was for 50 basis points beyond the 50 basis points already implemented in September, according to Reuters.
Interest rates FAQs
Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%. If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation.
Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank. If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold.
The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure. Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.
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