EUR/USD holds position around 1.0800 as softer US data escalate odds of Fed rate cuts
|- EUR/USD gains ground as US Dollar struggles due to escalated speculation of Fed rate cuts in 2024.
- The US ISM Services PMI dropped to 48.8 in June, marking its steepest decline since April 2020.
- The Euro may experience volatility as the second round of the French election approaches this Sunday.
EUR/USD continues its winning streak, trading around 1.0790 during the Asian session on Thursday. This upside is attributed to a decline in the US Dollar (USD) due to the escalated speculations of the Federal Reserve (Fed) reducing interest rates in 2024. US markets will be closed on Thursday in observance of the Independence Day holiday.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the USD against six other major currencies, faces challenges amid lower US Treasury yields. The DXY trades around 105.30 at the time of writing. As of Wednesday’s close, the 2-year and 10-year yields on US Treasury bonds stood at 4.70% and 4.35%, respectively.
On the US data front, US ISM Services PMI fell sharply to 48.8 in June, marking the steepest decline since April 2020. This figure was well below market expectations of 52.5, following a reading of 53.8 in May. The ADP Employment report showed that US private businesses added 150,000 workers to their payrolls in June, the lowest increase in five months. This figure fell short of the expected 160,000 and was below the downwardly revised 157,000 in May.
On the Euro’s side, traders anticipate increased EUR volatility as the second round of the French election runoff approaches on July 7. According to a Harris Interactive poll conducted for Challenges magazine, the RN is projected to fall short of the 289 seats needed to control the 577-seat National Assembly, marking the first survey published after a cross-party anti-RN coalition was formed, as reported by Reuters.
The yield spread between French and German 10-year government bonds has narrowed to approximately 71 basis points, down from a recent peak of 82 basis points at the end of last month. This reduction in the risk premium for French government bonds suggests growing investor confidence that the far-right RN party will not secure a parliamentary majority.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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