EUR/USD flat lines above 1.0800 as traders await fresh catalysts
|- EUR/USD trades flat near 1.0810 in Tuesday’s early Asian session.
- The rising bets that the Fed might not opt into aggressive easing might boost the USD.
- ECB’s Wunsch said there is no urgency for the ECB to speed up policy easing.
The EUR/USD pair holds steady around 1.0810 on the consolidation of the US Dollar (USD) during the early Asian session on Tuesday. Investors await Germany’s GfK Consumer Confidence data, which is due later on Tuesday.
The rising expectation of a slower pace of US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts is likely to support the Greenback in the near term. Nonetheless, market players will take more cues from the key US economic data this week, including the advanced Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the third quarter (Q3), ISM Manufacturing PMI, inflation and employment data.
Meanwhile, traders will closely monitor the US presidential election on November 5. According to polling site FiveThirtyEight, Trump's possibility of winning the US election has increased to 52% compared to 48% for Vice President Kamala Harris. The uncertainty surrounding this key event might lift the safe-haven currency like the USD against the Euro (EUR).
The European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers have had different views on monetary policy in the previous days. Belgian central bank chief Pierre Wunsch said on Monday that there is no urgency for the central bank to cut interest rates quicker, and it could even live with a small. The less dovish comments from ECB Governor Wunsch help limit the shared currency’s losses. However, the Portuguese central bank chief, Mario Centeno, stated that a 50 basis points (bps) rate cut should be among the options on the table in December.
Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne noted, “Comments from ECB Governor Wunsch, adding to the raft of voices who have spoken out against upping the pace of rate cuts recently, helped nudge the EUR higher. Moody’s put French debt on negative outlook Friday.”
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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